[Update: because of issues with our web host, all posts for May 9th were lost in addition to the backup! I have recreated it in rough fashion.]
I really like Businessweek magazine. Its current, edgy and informative. However, sometimes, in a magazine’s quest to be relevant, they go too far. The personal finance article Why The Housing Bubble Won’t Burst [BW] is an example of just this.
They interview Michael Youngblood, the managing director of asset-backed securities research at Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co. (FBR ) in Arlington, Va., who thinks residential real estate is a lot stronger than most people suspect. He bases this assessment on a new economic model he created that forecasts housing prices in 379 metropolitan statistical areas.
He uses the logic that real estate types are not forward thinking in their analysis of the market. They are looking at trailing indicators like days on market and inventory-to-sales ratio because they move with the market rather than predict the market.
He goes on to say that the biggest bubble markets will see the highest appreciation.
What about listing inventory? negotiability? mortgage rates? contract prices?
This is just dumb.