Matrix Blog

I sit down with Bob Knakal, the founding partner and Chairman of Massey Knakal Realty Services, who sell more commercial properties in New York City than any other firm. In 2009, Real Estate Forum magazine named Mr. Knakal one of the top 10 investment sales brokers in the United States.

He’s also a prolific commentator on the commercial real estate economy. Check out his blog StreetWise which is an initiative of his firm and GlobeSt.com as well as his weekly commentary in the New York Observer’s Commercial Observer. His recent State Shouldn’t Make a Whole New Ball Game of Mitchell-Lama is mandatory reading (no, not because of the Yankees World Series analogy).

I have long admired his market insights and his hair. We have a great conversation.

Check out the podcast

The Housing Helix Podcast Interview List

You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.

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Tags: Massey Knakal, New York Observer, Commercial, Retail

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Tags: Commercial Real Estate, Robert Knakal, Massey Knakal, New York Observer

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In the current issue of The Real Deal magazine, the article Real estate’s most verbose talking heads: A look at the busy schedules of NYC’s go-to market pundits…

…goes haywire with Adobe Illustrator and selects four go to media resources:

Barbara Corcoran, the founder of the Corcoran Group and now a regular on the “Today Show”; Jonathan Miller, the ubiquitous president of appraisal firm Miller Samuel; Dan Fasulo, managing director at Real Capital Analytics; and Bob Knakal, chairman of Massey Knakal Realty are just a few among a growing bunch of go-to contacts.

I think the bobblehead designation is a compliment? Verbosity? I always used that word in the “long-winded” connotation. Well, my phone simply rings – plus – I’ve been known to hang out on car dashboards on the weekends.

Aside: Bob Knakal is a long time colleague who has generously agreed to sit down with me on my podcast, The Housing Helix, in a few weeks.

Tags: Massey Knakal, Barbara Corcoran, Corcoran

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Well, it’s still morning in LA.

Real Deal Magazine publisher Amir Korangy and Editor Stuart Elliott finally get their due with a page 1, column 1 story in the LA Times yesterday. It covers their history and what its like to cover the New York housing market.

There was a market related quote in the article from one of the top New York City commercial real estate brokers, Bob Knakal, of Massey Knakal in Manhattan that got my attention. Here’s how he described the current commercial real estate market.

“It’s as if you had both your arms hacked off and you were bleeding all over the place,” Knakal says. “But then the bleeding stopped and you feel a little better. You still have your arms hacked off, but everything is relative.”

That’s brutal honesty – literally.

Tags: Massey Knakal, Amir Korangy

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Guest Appraiser Columnist:
John Cicero, MAI, CRE, FRICS

John provides commentary on issues affecting real estate appraisers, with specific focus on commercial valuation. He is a partner of mine in our commercial real estate valuation concern Miller Cicero, LLC and he is, depending on what day of the week it is, one of the smartest guys I know.
…Jonathan Miller

Bob Knakal, Chairman of investment sales brokerage firm, Massey Knakal Realty Services, recently released an excellent commentary on a 25-year history of the New York City multifamily market. Using actual sales data from 1984 to the present (including cap rate data from 2005 to 2008 compiled by my firm, Miller Cicero, LLC).

In addition to examining historical cap rates and gross rent multipliers over time, the report analyzes cap rates relative to mortgage rates and the yields on 10-year T-bills. An excerpt:

From 1994 through 1999, we saw slow steady declines in cap rates, with slightly positive leverage and risk premiums within a range of 100 to 250 basis points…Throughout the 25 years of this analysis, this period was the most stable-and I attribute this stability directly to the very disciplined lending practices of debt providers.

It’s actually fascinating (at least for a commercial appraisal nerd like me!) to see how many NYC multifamily property was routinely purchased with negative leverage (i.e. at cap rates below mortgage rates. In fact the past five years has been the biggest period of negative leverage buying since the mid 1980’s. However, with the more stringent underwriting now in place, the NYC multifamily market seems poised for another (surprisingly rare) period of positive leverage.

Tags: Massey Knakal, John Cicero, Miller Cicero, Commercial Grade

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John Cicero has more than twenty five years of commercial real estate valuation experience and is my business partner and managing principal in our firm Miller Cicero, LLC, a commercial real estate appraisal firm covering the New York City region.

He talks cap rates, market trends of various types of commercial properties, his recent market report for Massey Knakal and the political movement in Albany that is of great concern to income property investors in New York state.

Don’t fret, John bifurcates everything to those outside the cap rate mainstream.

Check out this week’s podcast.

You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.

Tags: Massey Knakal, Miller Cicero

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Tags: Massey Knakal, Miller Cicero

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Our commercial advisory firm just released the Manhattan Building Sales Report prepared in conjunction with Massey Knakal, a leading commercial real estate brokerage firm.

My commercial valuation partner John Cicero, MAI in our firm Miller Cicero oversees the report preparation. The report is the only one of its kind that tracks cap rates, income multipliers, price per square foot and number of sales.

The format has changed to quarterly and the expanding series will be more borough-specific.

An excerpt:

The first quarter of 2009 property sales market in Manhattan is characterized by a dramatic slowdown in sales activity. This is the first period tracked that truly reflects the market mentality created in September 2008 with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the federal bailouts of AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the ensuing paralysis of the credit markets throughout the fall. (In contrast, our last market report for the second half of 2008 included numerous sales that were negotiated pre- September)…

Massey Knakal will distribute nearly 300,000 hard copies of the report over the next few months.

Massey Knakal Manhattan Building Sales Report [1Q09]

Report Methodology [Miller Cicero]

Tags: Massey Knakal, Miller Cicero, Lehman

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John Cicero, MAI provides commentary on issues affecting real estate appraisers, with specific focus on commercial valuation. John is a partner of mine in our commercial real estate valuation concern Miller Cicero, LLC and he is, depending on what day of the week it is, one of the smartest guys I know.
…Jonathan Miller

The Massey Knakal Income Property Report that I prepare on behalf of the brokerage firm was just released for the second half of 2008. The report is the only one of its kind that tracks cap rates, income multipliers, price per square foot and number of sales for the New York City multi-family market. As this report included only those sales (above $500,000) that closed from July 1 through December 31, it includes sales closed before and after the market turn in mid-September, when Lehman collapsed and the credit markets seized.

An excerpt:

The number of sales dropped 45% from the second half of 2007 to the second half of 2008. Relative to the prior year the greatest declines were in Manhattan and Northern Manhattan, both down 54%, and the Bronx, down 60%. Year over year there were 37% fewer sales in 2008. This suggests a turnover rate of 1.9%, down from 3.0% in 2007 (of the categories tracked).

Massey Knakal will distribute nearly 300,000 hard copies of the report over the next few months.

Massey Knakal New York City Income Property Market Report [2H08]

Report Methodology [Miller Cicero]

Tags: Soapbox Blog, Massey Knakal, Commercial Grade

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Our commercial advisory firm just released its New York City Income Property Market Report for the second half of 2008 for Massey Knakal. My commercial valuation partner John Cicero prepares the report. It’s the only report of its kind that covers the New York City commercial market.

Here’s what he says:
The Massey Knakal Income Property Report that I prepare on behalf of the brokerage firm was just released for the second half of 2008. The report is the only one of its kind that tracks cap rates, income multipliers, price per square foot and number of sales for the New York City multi-family market. As this report included only those sales (above $500,000) that closed from July 1 through December 31, it includes sales closed before and after the market turn in mid-September, when Lehman collapsed and the credit markets seized.

An excerpt:

The number of sales dropped 45% from the second half of 2007 to the second half of 2008. Relative to the prior year the greatest declines were in Manhattan and Northern Manhattan, both down 54%, and the Bronx, down 60%. Year over year there were 37% fewer sales in 2008. This suggests a turnover rate of 1.9%, down from 3.0% in 2007 (of the categories tracked).

Massey Knakal will distribute nearly 300,000 hard copies of the report over the next few months.

Massey Knakal New York City Income Property Market Report [2H08]

Report Methodology [Miller Cicero]

Tags: Massey Knakal, Miller Cicero, Lehman

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Commercial Grade is a post by John Cicero, MAI who provides commentary on issues affecting real estate appraisers, with specific focus on commercial valuation. John is a partner of mine in our commercial real estate valuation concern Miller Cicero, LLC and he is, depending on what day of the week it is, one of the smartest guys I know. …Jonathan Miller

The semi-annual market report that I prepare on behalf of investment sales brokerage firm Massey Knakal Realty Services is available for download. This report was particularly interesting in that it reflected the multi-family and mixed-use sales market in New York City post “credit crunch.” We found that the number of sales was down significantly, 31% overall from the same period last year, with the biggest declines in Northern Manhattan and the Bronx. The median price per square foot was $222/SF, down 5% from the prior period, while the median cap rates increased to 5.8% and the median GIM declined to 11.5.

Download full report

Tags: Soapbox Blog, Massey Knakal, Commercial Grade

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Our commercial advisory firm just released its New York City Income Property Market Report for the first half of 2008 for Massey Knakal. My commercial valuation partner John Cicero prepares the report. It’s the only report of its kind that covers the New York City commercial market.

Here’s an excerpt:

Though underwriting may be more conservative, the decline in sales volume is a function of lack of inventory rather than lack of demand. The underlying rental market remains strong and investors continue to be interested in such property but supply is constrained. The consolidated median price per square foot across markets declined to $222, down 5% from the prior six month period. Similarly, the median cap rate (across all sectors) inched up slightly to 5.8% from 5.5% from the prior period while the median GIM slipped from 12.4 to 11.5…

Massey Knakal will distribute over 300,000 hard copies of the report over the next few months.

Massey Knakal New York City Income Property Market Report [1H08]

Report Methodology [Miller Cicero]

Tags: Massey Knakal, Miller Cicero

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