Matrix Blog

I’m not saying the US isn’t seeing an uptick in buyers from China, especially housing markets such as Manhattan. After all, there is a global trend where money is chasing stability and safety. US real estate has been a key beneficiary of this trend.

However it is important to realize that there is no US data from independent sources that links overseas nationalities with residential real estate purchases. Why?…because of long time concerns in the US about fair housing laws and by extension, the gray area of tracking nationalities to housing purchases although it is the norm outside the US.

When any housing trend is discussed, it is important to understand where the source of the trend came from. I’d really like housing market followers to appreciate that the trend analysis on the foreign buyer subject bantered in the media as of late is literally based on nothing. There has been an outpouring of coverage of the topic over the past few months, but the sourcing is only from real estate brokerage anecdotes because that is all there is for reporters to work with. I was interviewed for some of the following articles but disagreed with the general story premise, and I assume that is why my view wasn’t inserted.

Whichever stance you take on this particular trend – that Russians used to dominate the Manhattan housing market and how the Chinese have taken their place at the top – there really is no wrong answer, because there are no facts. All sourcing on the topic to make that point are from real estate agents referring to their opinion, often based on their past few transactions.

Russia
I first noticed this new new storyline when Russia invaded Crimea. Would the Russian position as the number 1 foreign buyer of real estate in Manhattan now go away? The brokerage community, or at least a couple of real estate agents claimed this to be the case.

I have no evidence to the contrary even though there are huge capital outflows from Russia that began with the Russian invasion of Crimea. In my view, the real estate agents were confused by the high profile sales by Russian buyers (think of Russian Oligarch buying 15 Central Park west for $88M) and perhaps has some direct feedback in some of their own transactions. However I don’t think Russians were ever the top homebuyers in Manhattan, just the highest profile.

If we have learned anything from the current Manhattan new development boom, it is the fact that high profile, high end transactions are not a proxy for the balance of the market much like a handful of high profile Russian purchases are not a proxy for some sort of Russian real estate dominance.

Manhattan Real Estate Feels a Russian Chill [NYTimes]

China
Now that the Russians are “out” (see previous) of the top spot, that must mean that the Chinese are “in.” Check out the headlines to this storyline although much of these articles build on the Reuters piece (linked below) which is based on real estate agent anecdotes. A slew of brokerage PR driven stories on the Chinese are now dominating the real estate headlines in New York City.

Perhaps this uptick as something to do with recent closings at well published Chinese buyer favorites like One57 and perhaps the fact that China is poised to become the world’s number 1 economy.

NY real estate firms woo Chinese buyers [China Daily] The Chinese take Manhattan: replace Russians as top apartment buyers [Reuters]

U.S.CHINA’S RICH BECOME BIGGEST FOREIGN APARTMENT-BUYERS IN MANHATTAN [Al Jazeera]

Who are the dominating the foreign buyers of Manhattan real estate?
Anecdotally I think it remains Canadians but is dominated by Europe (UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Ireland, etc combined) because they are still the largest tourism group. Brazil doesn’t get enough respect since they are the 3rd highest source of tourism to NYC. This list is 2 years old but I doubt China has passed Europe or even come close but this is, shall I say, “anecdotal.”

From NYC & CO., here are New York City’s top international sources (2012 figures):

1. Canada 1,063,000
2. United Kingdom 1,033,000
3. Brazil 806,000
4. France 667,000
5. Germany 605,000
6. Australia 595,000
7. PR China (excl. Hong Kong) 541,000
8. All Middle East (incl. Israel) 478,000
9. Italy 449,000
10. Mexico 387,000
11. Eastern Europe 384,0000
12. Spain 380,000
13. Japan 328,000
14. South Korea 281,000
15. Argentina 272,000
16. Ireland 224,000
17. India 215,000
18. Israel 203,000
19. Netherlands 203,000
20. Sweden 190,000

Tags: Canada, Russia, China, Brazil

Comments Off on Stories on Chinese Overtaking Russian Home Buyers in Manhattan is Purely Anecdotal

I was reading Tara Perkin’s piece in The Globe and Mail about the record price spread between the US and Canadian housing markets and saw one of the most startling housing charts of late (above). To be clear, this chart doesn’t adjust for the exchange rate but the article says the Canadian/US existing home price spread would be large – closer to 50% than 66% – still huge.

The article cites Bank of Montreal’s chief economist Doug Porter as saying:

“The main takeaway is that, contrary to all expectations, the Canadian housing market has just kept on rolling in 2014 even as the U.S. housing market has paused for breath (after a steep climb out of the dungeon),” he writes in a research note. “Put it this way, how many pundits a year ago were calling for Canadian home prices to rise faster than their U.S. counterparts in any single measure?”

Yes, true, but this is probably another good reason not to rely on anything published by a lender’s “chief economist” title due to their inherent bias toward the interests of their employer. What I find fascinating about the Canadian housing market is the proliferation of the false rationale that prices are being used as a measure of housing health. For the US counterpart, think Miami and Las Vegas circa 2005 when prices were skyrocketing and sales were falling.

The Canadian government tightened credit conditions a year ago and sales fell sharply:

This time last year it was far from clear when and if the Canadian housing market would emerge from the sales slump that ensued after former Finance Minister Jim Flaherty tightened the country’s mortgage insurance rules.

Focus on March 2014 v. March 2012 in the following chart:

With Canadian home buyer’s access to credit now reigned in, sales fell sharply yet housing prices continued to rise. But Canadian housing prices are rising now much like they are in the US, based on restricted access to credit that keeps inventory off the market. And we’re not talking about household debt.

New housing inventory entering the market in Canada is now falling which is continuing to goose (sorry, Canadian geese pun) prices higher.

The Greater Fool Theory Applies to the Canadian Housing Market

A theory that states it is possible to make money by buying securities, whether overvalued or not, and later selling them at a profit because there will always be someone (a bigger or greater fool) who is willing to pay the higher price.

Of course from our past experience in the US, it’s not surprising to see every outpouring of Canadian housing market bubble concern met with an equal outpouring of Canadian housing bubble denial.

Please stop using housing prices as a measure of housing health. It was obviously flawed logic when applied in the US during 2003-2006 and now it has become apparent it was flawed during the 2012 to 2013 US run up.

Housing price growth doesn’t reflect good housing market health in Canada either.

Tags: Canada, Greater Fool Theory, Canadian Housing Market

5 Comments

A friend of mine shared this video with me, a speech by Pierre Poilievre, MP for Nepean-Carleton, on April 4, 2012, spoke on behalf of the Government on Budget 2012. He is incredibly eloquent, insisting that Canada is not going down the path that the US took. Yet here’s a sobering headline.

Of course, he’s wrong. Even back well before April of this year you could see the froth in cities like Toronto. In Vancouver, sales have now fallen sharply.

Earlier this year I was quoted in the Toronto Star as some sort of bubble veteran that broached the subject of a bubble and I was not surprised to hear the same rationale we heard in the US. Toronto new development was focused on small units to be purchased by investors to rent or flip although defenders rationalized that was how workers would move to the city to expand the economy. Deja vu.

Many believe that Canada is different because prices will only fall for the next few years unlike the US where it was a 6 year fall (2006-2012).

Well, that is still a correction or bubble for nearly the same reasons as the US: government policy, speculation and cheap credit.

My eureka moment

I have long thought that all the housing shows on HGTV ie “Property Brothers”, “Holmes on Homes” etc. were filmed in Canada instead of the US because production costs were cheaper – no! My theory: After the US market tanked in 2006, production was much easier in a housing market where prices were rising, marketing times were fast and credit was readily available. That’s why these shows have continued where “flip this house” in California left off….for now.

Tags: Canada, Canadian Housing Market

Comments Off on Housing Bubble – Canada Is Following US Lead

[click to read article]

Over the summer Camilla Papale, Douglas Elliman’s CMO asked me if I would present something about the state of luxury real estate for their Elliman Magazine (and iPad app!). The finished result contained 3 parts:

• I wrote a brief piece about the influx of international demand as high end consumers were seeking a safe haven from the world’s economic problems. I called the piece: “LUXURY REAL ESTATE AS THE WORLD’S NEW CURRENCY” This post’s title was my working title which I also liked.
• Plus I did a little research on housing prices across the globe using Knight Frank’s resources and
• I moderated a discussion on the subject with Dottie Herman, President & CEO of Douglas Elliman, Patrick Dring, Head of International Residential at Knight Frank, and Liam Bailey, Head of Residential Research at Knight Frank. They all provided great insights to the subject.

Here’s the full piece in Elliman Magazine . I’ve inserted a portion of the presentation below in 2 parts:

LUXURY REAL ESTATE AS THE WORLD’S NEW CURRENCY

Since the beginning of the global credit crunch in 2008, luxury real estate has morphed into a new world currency that provides investors with both a tangible asset and a cachet that cannot be found within the financial markets. It’s as if these emboldened investors zoomed out of their local Google Earth view to discover the wider global perspective on luxury real estate.

HOW DID WE GET HERE? The US dollar has weakened in the years following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the onset of the global credit crisis. The S&P downgrade of US debt in August 2011 from its benchmark AAA rating brought a flood of investors into US financial securities. That meant that our currency allowed us to buy less abroad, and the strength of other currencies provided international buyers with large discounts when purchasing property in US dollars. But it went further than that.

THE RISE OF LUXURY REAL ESTATE AS A “SAFE HAVEN.” The volatility of global financial markets and the resulting political fallout shook investor confidence, which in turn spurred a rise in foreign buyers seeking a safe haven to protect their assets. A wave of international buyers from Europe, South America, and Asia entered the US housing market, helping set record prices and revive luxury markets including New York, The Hamptons, and Miami.

SUPPLY-DRIVEN DEMAND. The luxury real estate market has become defined by the supply of available properties. While demand has remained constant and elevated, inventory has become a critical variable, particularly at the very top of the market, where surging international demand for one-of-a-kind properties has surpassed the limited supply. The resultant record-breaking sales of “trophy” properties have enticed more owners of luxury homes to make them available for sale.

THE RISE OF THE “TROPHY PROPERTY.” The trophy property has become a new market category that does not follow the rules and dynamics of the overall marketplace. One stratospheric price record is being set after another, and it is not only the list prices that are defining these record sales; the rarity of location, expanse of the views, quality of amenities, and the sheer size of these unique homes have all played an important part in attracting the interest of foreign buyers.

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? Driven by the global credit crunch and political instability, the two factors that are expected to remain unchanged for the next several years, the US luxury housing market is expected to remain a “safe haven” for foreign investors for quite some time.

A CONVERSATION ABOUT THE COMMERCE OF GLOBAL LUXURY REAL ESTATE

I sat down with Dottie Herman and our friends across the pond, Patrick Dring, Head of International Residential, and Liam Bailey, Head of Residential Research at Knight Frank, to chat about the state of real estate in the prime markets across the globe and the rise of a foreign investment phenomenon.

JONATHAN MILLER: Douglas Elliman has a broad coverage area that includes some of the most affluent housing markets in the US. Are you seeing any short-term issues that may influence luxury investor decisions over the coming year?

DOTTIE HERMAN: At the end of this year, we may see a repeat of the consumer behavior we saw at the end of 2010 when US capital gains tax rates were expected to rise. Ultimately, the rates did not increase, but many consumers in the luxury market took preventative action before the potential tax increase and raced to close their sales by the end of 2010. Despite the ups and downs in the quarters that followed, the luxury housing market was not adversely impacted in the long-term.

JM: Paddy, according to Knight Frank’s Global Briefing blog, housing prices in central London are up sharply, but the pace of growth appears to be slowing, perhaps because of the new stamp duty (a tax on properties priced at £2M–the equivalent of $3.15M–or more). What does this mean for the luxury market?

PADDY DRING: In short, the £5M ($7.85M) market is up year-on-year. The new stamp duty on property sales above £2M seems to be having an impact only on the band just above the new £2M threshold. Foreign demand remains high and, notably, we have sold to over 62 different nationalities within the last 12 months. They are less affected by the changes in stamp duty, since the rates in London are still in line with many other European countries.

JM: Dottie, your firm has sold a large number of luxury properties this year, despite a lukewarm economy and tight credit conditions. Record sales and listing prices are becoming nearly commonplace and a significant portion of this demand for luxury real estate is coming from abroad. Do you see this developing into a long-term trend?

DH: It’s certainly been a year of records and I do think we are embarking on a period where luxury real estate has the potential to outperform the rest of the housing market. Several of the markets that we cover, Manhattan and Miami in particular, have been firmly established as highly sought-after international destinations. As much as we fret about how slowly our economy is recovering, the US has proven itself as a “safe haven” for many international investors who are concerned about the turmoil of the world economy and political stability. Luxury investors from much of Europe, Russia, Asia and South America have been buying here at the highest pace we have seen since the credit crunch began.

JM: Liam, the US is seeing a higher-than-normal influx of real estate demand from foreign investors who seem to be focusing on the upper end of the housing market. These investors are well represented from Europe, Asia and South America. Are you seeing the same phenomenon when it comes to luxury properties in the UK? What are the primary regions where this demand is coming from?

LIAM BAILEY: The focus of demand continues on London and its easily accessible suburbs. London is facing even higher global demand than New York, with the top end strongly led by Russia, Europe, Canada, and the Middle East, and demand in the new development investment market very much led by Asia.

JM: In the US, access to financing is a key challenge to domestic purchasers, including luxury investors. What are some of the key challenges facing your clients who are looking to purchase real estate outside of their own countries?

PD & LB: Financing remains a consideration for many, although mortgages are more available in many of the markets than people are led to believe. Of course, the property needs to be quality and in a core location and have a more conservative loan-to-value ratio, however, many of our clients purchase in cash, so they are more affected by market sentiment and, of course, liquidity if they need to sell unexpectedly in the future. Factors affecting market sentiment include the usual considerations, such as exchange rate, a stable political base, as well as a sound legal system that guarantees clarity of title and tax considerations. The latter of course is affecting not only the cost of acquisition (stamp duty), but also, in some countries, the cost of holding (wealth tax) and ultimately selling (capital gains tax). Access, infrastructure, and climate (if lifestyle-driven) all remain key, as do low crime rates as people become more aware of their privacy and personal safety.

JM: Since the beginning of the credit crunch, you’ve constantly stressed to your clients that the terms of a sale are just as important as the price of a sale, given the challenges of obtaining financing. How do international buyers fi t into this new world defined by tough lending standards?

DH: Despite mortgage lending in the US remaining tight, luxury markets in the areas we cover have improved quickly. I can only imagine how much stronger the US housing market would be if we saw credit ease to historically normal levels. International buyers tend to pay cash or obtain financing from their native countries, which has given them an advantage over many domestic purchasers. Combine the ability to pay in cash with both the weakness of the US dollar against many of their native currencies and a volatile global economy, and you can begin to understand why we are seeing a strong presence of international buyers in our markets. Like our friends at Knight Frank, these luxury investors are interested in our proven core markets that already have a large concentration of luxury properties. Overall, we continue to be excited about our market’s expanding presence in the global luxury housing market—there are many opportunities out there for this new international investor to explore.

Luxury Real Estate as the World’s New Currency [Miller Samuel (pdf)]
Luxury Real Estate as the World’s New Currency [Douglas Elliman]
Elliman iPad App [iTunes]

Tags: Europe, London, Dottie Herman, Liam Bailey, Paddy Dring, Elliman Magazine, Canada, Canadian Housing Market, Lehman

2 Comments

Here’s a great research piece from Knight Frank on the state of housing in many of the world’s cities.

South America is dominating other regions in market performance right now. Canada shows strength (all the HGTV shows seem to be filmed there) and why isn’t Greece falling harder?

Knight Frank published their The Global House Price Index recorded its weakest annual performance since the depths of the recession in 2009, recording only 0.9% growth in the year to March 2012. Doubts over the Eurozone’s future, along with the Asian governments’ staunch efforts to cool their markets and deter speculative investment, have taken their toll.

Here’s in the index table:

• Q1 2012 Global House Price Index [Knight Frank]

Tags: Global House Price Index, Europe, Canada, Greece, Canadian Housing Market

Comments Off on [Knight Frank] Q1 2012 Global House Price Index: Europe Is A Problem

Housing has long been viewed as an emotional investment. Along with the housing boom of the past 5 years, there has a been a boom in reality television shows. My first obsession was This Old House when Bob Vila was host.

Housing has morphed into a national obsession. No surprise there.

Take a look at this week’s television schedule for HGTV.

If we aren’t watching people decorate, we are watching them, sell, buy and flip houses.

This AP story I came across in the Washington Post called Real Estate Cold, Real Estate TV Hot seems to defy reality. Ratings are very high.

Given the downturn in many real estate markets across the country, I am struck by the dated nature of the reality show title “Flip This House”.

• Are people still flipping?
• Will buys consider a flip with so much excess inventory?
• What banks are providing investors financing these days…reality shows???

The irony here is that housing reality shows have become housing fantasy shows.

index.html. index1.html. index2.html. index3.html. index4.html. index5.html. index6.html. index7.html. index8.html. index9.html. index10.html. index11.html. index12.html. index13.html. index14.html. index15.html. index16.html. index17.html. index18.html. index19.html. silagra generic viagra cialis cumwithuscom viagra by mail order kansas city ultrasound jobs viagra buy cheap generic online viagra viagra and optic neuropathy viagra do don’ts splitting viagra pills lisinopril viagra viagra online from us pharmacys herbal lotion natural viagra viagra ch viagra definiiton cialis viagra levitra effects generic viagra forumes viagra for horses ace inhibiters and viagra viagra taken ranitidine singapore cailis viagra drugstore viagra delaware caverta generic viagra veega 2 00 viagra compare levitra viagra cialis cheapest prescription viagra women take viagra viagra cialic levitra compare cialis levitra viagra generic viagra sildenafil scary movie viagra mexico and viagra viagra before and after diferencia cialis viagra order forms for buying viagra generic propecia viagra viagra rx buy viagra online order viagra tv commercial girl does viagra enlarge the penis viagra norvasc viagra erection after ejaculation faster viagra working fill online prescription viagra annals of internal medicine viagra drug interactions with cocaine and viagra viagra cystic fibrosis herbal natural viagra viagra online student loan consolidation buying viagra internet heart attack generic viagra pay online check viagra order online pharmacy prescription drug viagra bob dole viagra tv ad ecstasy and viagra online viagra canada best price for viagra buying online risk viagra phentermine viagra pharmacy online viagra is viagra prescribed buy viagra phentermine weight loss prescription buy online viagra securely buy phentermine second best to viagra female viagra free emailing woman use viagra viagra patent expires viagra and unstable angina over the counter viagra london generic viagra cheapest substitute viagra simple amino acid asia generic viagra viagra with penicillin kazinaki online viagra generic lowest price viagra sex on viagra pharmsupport viagra viagra or cialis free viagra consultations failed anti-depressant used as female viagra free viagra online male infertility viagra viagra and levitra viagra model generic overnight shipping viagra impotence uk viagra master mine cheap viagra best pill viagra superlar viagra viagra mexico online viagra no generic buy viagra softtabs cialis versus viagra best viagra zenetra viagra cheaper viagra levitra apcalis get viagra drug online viagra cialis levitra online viagra dick viagra vasolidadtor in muscle contest viagra pushups generic viagrageneric viagra natural viagra natural male enhancement viagra substitue buy viagra in toronto viagra cialis levitra reviews side effect viagra cialis generic viagra for sale on line alternative qoclick se viagra generic viagra mg blue pill vasoderm better than viagra lowest dosage of viagra straight boy drugged and given viagra comparison viagra cialis levitra female use of viagra az tempe viagra buy online pharmacy viagra buy cheapest viagra online cheapest viagra in the uk free online viagra pill sample buy online viagra where internet viagra source get approved online compare viagra prices viagra bullshit viagra ejaculate viagra causing blindness 2007 viagra hmo college viagra generic viagra cialis pills viagra compairsons comparison of levitra and viagra viagra depression women viagra line 25mg viagra and online medical consultation viagra diovan mark martin viagra jacket effects viagra women active drug in viagra sophia viagra tom cruise altace viagra viagra what to expect generic for viagra fda approved medications viagra online shop viagra san luis rio colorado viagra kamagra aangeboden 50mg viagra retail price viagra small prices index women does viagra work alternative to viagra cialis levitra strong viagra ron jeremy quote viagra buy in uk viagra pharmaceuticals viagra nascar viagra car viagra stores to buy viagra online australian viagra alternative can act like viagra and keep compare or viagra news release viagra for woman canada and generic viagra buy cheap cialis generic levitra viagra which is better viagra lowest viagra prices viagra john m bouchie vigorelle viagra cream for women prescription required for viagra manila philippines viagra philippines generic viagra sold on line viagra comics free cialis free levitra free viagra alternate uses for viagra viagra pour femme herbal viagra for woman cheap no prescription viagra get viagra prescription 5 viagra tablets cheapest generic substitute viagra alternative baikalguide viagra viagra alternative research women who take viagra viagra versus cialis viagra effects how long cheap cialis viagra viagra commercial girl mix beer and viagra comment written prescription for viagra impurity related substance viagra cheap online prescription ultram viagra zoloft giant viagra pill viagra los algodones pharmacy compare generic viagra wholesale prices aeroflot open view topic order viagra viagra online cheap discreet cialis viagra online pharmacy ramipril and viagra sildenafil citrate viagra viagra women online cheap viagra four bitchin viagra mp3 crohn’s viagra viagra pay pal viagra vancouver viagra tips viagra cialis canadian pharmacy viagra commercial clips comparison cialis levitra viagra viagra recreational use viagra hgh discount drug viagra discount viagra brand drug after availability effects viagra real viagra man on viagra bangs his wife generic viagra fast shipping safety of buying viagra on line drug viagra zenegra tlf can you copyright viagra xenical viagra zyban proscar generic viagra side effects buy citrate generic sildenafil viagra generic viagra softabs viagra and lipitor fr d ric von anhalt viagra viagra crohn viagra buy in uk online generic viagra viagra uk purchase viagra generique bon marche mixing cocaine and viagra viagra compared to others buying generic viagra viagra uk viagra like pills zenegr viagra generic sample viagra a href viagra a viagra dangers ed treatment for use with viagra viagra doses discounted viagra compare cialis viagra levitra viagra use in women no perscription generic viagra chemical compound of viagra nbc viagra viagra doesnt work viagra and champagne combination order cialis and viagra viagra plant photo 100 mg viagra prices viagra lawyers natures viagra premium generic viagra sildenafil generic viagra berman sister female viagra study buy cheapest online viagra viagra cialis and levitra buy viagra porno at maygreat org buy viagra generic viagra fertility research alternative herbal review viagra best buy for viagra geniric viagra viagra sample canada viagra experience maryland cialis tadalafil viagra compare generic price viagra tadalafil versus generic viagra viagra generic brand viagra cialis levitra free viagra pour feme liquid viagra shot recipe viagra alternatives cialis info viagra for the brain viagra vs cialis joke viagra generic viagra bz cheap viagra phone prescription viagra viagra effect on semen production generic viagra soft tab fast $2.00 calias viagra deine nachricht site viagra british heather tea viagra effects effects long side term viagra viagra on dogs bob viagra commercials cheap viagra overnight viagra onlin viagra alternative viagra side effects alcohol homemade viagra viagra levitra online 12generic sildenafil viagra viagra racing generico impotencia viagra viagra herbal alternatives viagra soft tablet buy cialis online viagra viagra and diabetes discovery health peru s natural viagra viagra canadian prescriptions viagra compare prices no questions viagra generic 20 cents from india sex injury with viagra generic viagra uk buy viagra now online buy viagra powered by phpbb generic brands viagra online canada free sample viagra comparing cialis and viagra product information viagra spanish levitra verses viagra cheap meltabs online viagra viagra sale online viagra doctor effectiveness of viagra directions for using viagra lady viagra cost viagra supplements viagra viagra ad ecstacy and viagra addiction to viagra viagra chemical compound penrex as viagra substitute viagra store coupons female libido viagra discount generic viagra volume information for viagra internet viagra pharmacy pulmonary hypertension infant viagra picture of viagra viagra doesn’t work viagra success stories impotence aids for use with viagra fda approved generic viagra sildenafil citrate safe for females to use viagra respiratory ailment pulmonary fibrosis viagra free sample herbal viagra depression libido viagra viagra divorce viagra shorts viagra on the market there’s viagra in the water does viagra works after casteration drg generic viagra viagra sample size buy viagra cialis levitra viagra erection duration generic viagra master card purchase generic viagra sent overnight viagra home remedy british tea heather viagra primary sources for viagra insurance viagra oysters viagra abuse herb viagra does viagra increase number of ejaculations generic viagra new au book buy online order viagra viagra boys clips viagra half life viagra nclex question viagra women study viagra cialis online cost low viagra viagra cialis on line continuing medical education california viagra buy viagra in mexico buy viagra assist cheap cialis generic viagra in canada recreational viagra use cialis viagra levitra comparisons viagra result take viagra woman viagra doctor free endometrium viagra free viagra for woman viagra calgary viagra travel where do i buy viagra in paroxetine viagra 2737 amerimedrx viagra wetrack it zyban discount generic viagra pokemon gold buy viagra cohort studies on diabetes viagra natural viagras viagra next day delivery lawsuits involving blindness caused by viagra generic risk using viagra wikipedia viagra wine bottle opener tablet viagra tramadol viagra valentines viagra viagra moa going through customs with viagra pulmonary hypertension trials viagra human viagra woman viagra for sell pfizer drugs viagra viagra goes public viagra for womenn joke important bulletin viagra mexican bean generic softtabs viagra viagra best ad viagra what goes up is viagra safe cheap sale viagra viagra cost at walmart viagra financials viagra for sale in uk cheap deal viagra prescription viagra soft tab viagra generic viagra in british columbia viagra 24 hours delivary viagra class action buy cheapest viagra generic viagra rip-offs achat viagra generique viagra no prescription viagra and vascular disease cheapest viagra prices estate sale viagra best generic viagra generic names for viagra buy viagra for women cheap viagra overnight delivery referrers viagra can viagra cause blindness the effects of viagra cialis und viagra forum viagra prescribed females search results cheap generic viagra discount viagra mastercard best discount free viagra via viagra causes blindness who use viagra viagra prescribing info sildenafil citrate viagra generic 6 free sample viagra viagra comercial actress viagra and woman buy viagra on line uk a q name buy viagra soft tabs viagra recreational use of viagra viagra cialis desire generic viagra zenegra cialis levitra holistic viagra court lawsuits on viagra legal viagra purchase site viagra leveren kamagra viagra gel tab viagra viagra alternative colloplast is there generic viagra zenwgra viagra real take viagra phillip frost viagra buy real viagra pharmacy online natural viagra woman best herbal viagra viagra engineer search results for generic viagra medicare coverage of viagra viagra heck reaction expired viagra viagra 9 viagra fda alternative for viagra australia viagra to order viagra yybbs is generic viagra real sialis or viagra generic meltabs viagra php healthy loss viagra weight 20 ace inhibiters taken with viagra order viagra canada order viagra now viagra money order 12 cod generic pal pay viagra viagra mix up smoking viagra dosages feds close viagra loophole cbs news making of viagra australia viagra cialis supply cialis generic levitra propecia viagra generic mexico pharmacy viagra don’t mix beer and viagra comment citalopram viagra viagra prescription online cialis levitra viagra index comment moderation pending say viagra viagra facts find viagra online viagra available from online doctor understanding viagra price generic viagra buy buying sale viagra vendo viagra plant heather viagra buy generic viagra pharmacy online online prescription for viagra mindful musings cheap viagra trick viagra mixing vicodin with viagra anxiety relief online prescription medicine viagra use of viagra viewing pornography viagra versus levitra viagra damage webresults buy viagra cheapest prices on generic viagra canadian pharmacy for viagra viagra lozenges viagra seuss information viagra woman generic viagra soft tabs online adipex meridia phentermine prescription viagra cheapest viagra world viagra winstonsalem airport security viagra generic cialis pills generic viagra levitra viagra or kamagra or cialis viagra sale cheap source viagra viagra propecia buy online black market viagra alert joke online us pharmacies generic viagra softtabs natural viagra alternative impotence viagra generic viagra cheap contact lenses prozac viagra joke viagra for transsexual 2006 followup march post viagra generic viagra discount viagra norco methadone and viagra drug interactions with viagra viagra lakeland fl viagra nitroglycerin viagra generic soft tabs 100mg book burning by powered site viagra buy cialis ejaculation premature viagracom buy female viagra bean jumping mexican viagra generic viagra new zealand buy pfizer viagra vipps pharmacy viagra online consultation and overnight viagra websites cialis info viagra mdma and viagra propecia cialis viagra uk viagra supplier viagra london clinic regents singapore shop cailis viagra compare cialis viagra cheap viagra pythonmexico org do you last longer on viagra women use viagra taking viagra negative reinforcement guaranteed cheapest viagra viagra zyban female viagra alternative all pills generic viagra calamus root viagra female injury with viagra viagra alternativ sverige viagra in the uk paxil with viagra viagra on internet prescription online vega generic viagra mark martin viagra car buy viagra online in the uk viagra steroids viagra online without rx buy viagra online get prescription viagra tabs how long will viagra last buy real viagra online generic viagra with money order levitracialis compare levitra viagra viagra indication natural viagra uk buy cheap viagra online uk combination viagra zanaflex viagra ukraine viagra and attacks heart viagra song lyrics need some viagra why women shouldnt take viagra mixing viagra and cialis viagra soft tabs generic 100mg renova viagra purchasing viagra australia viagra ruduces iop 78 zenegra viagra dose viagra healthy weight loss viagra memphis tn viagra knock offs viagra safety information best viagra online levitra and cialis and viagra viagra on line canada herbal viagra fda eznegra viagra machaca natural viagra effects viagra natural viagra for women sildenafil viagra 2007 crohn what happen from viagra herb that works like viagra viagra blocker about viagra cheapest viagra fake generic viagra order viagra onlineovernight inventor of viagra line prescription viagra viagra discount viagra and drug testing viagra recvomendaations for use buy online p viagra natural viagra alternative review viagra dosage and cost viagra warnings buying cheap viagra 100 mg viagra price viagra investigator boards buy googlepray viagra free female viagra gneric viagra viagra high blood pressure drug like viagra female impulse viagra when will generic viagra be available viagra online pharmacy review generic viagra generic meltabs viagra canadian viagra online viagra to buy uk acheter viagra viagra for lung disease viagra discussion minister viagra negative effects of viagra substitute viagra are generic viagra doesent work neil miller and viagra and research viagra h jt blodtryk viagra substitute internet businesses viagra levitra comparison 5viagra levitra cialis apcalis regalis zenegra order viagra cheap viagra online ordering viagra sale prices viagra and heartburn 2006 cialis followup january post viagra silagra generic viagra silagra cumwithuscom buy pharmacy pill viagra prescription viagra without pill price viagra viagra online uk delivery viagra use girl on viagra commercial viagra bon marche viagra para que buy viagra no prescription best viagra subsititue buy viagra internet viagra in mexico non-prescription viagra over the counter drug to viagra medil journals pulmonary hypertension viagra viagra dreampharm how viagra affects glaucoma what is better viagra or levitra viagra bicycle shirt viagra cialis vs xanax viagra diazepam annals internal medicine viagra womens viagra uk viagra sample 50mg sides effect of viagra viagra how young is too young viagra pulmonary hypertension everest does viagra help premature ejaculation herbal alternative viagra levitra herb compare viagra cialis levitra story viagra mark martin viagra buying viagra viagra free without prescription viagra uk buy cheap drug retin tramadol viagra buy drug satellite tv viagra viagra package insert viagra price uk buy cheap viagra prescription online generic review viagra viagra overnight delivery 1 800 canada generic in sold viagra bush fetches george porn viagra w buy in spain viagra viagra 6 free samples buy viagra order viagra hotwheels viagra viagra heart generic viagra accepting american express generic viagra versus generic cialis pills boy tied drugged viagra viagra brunette commercial babe viagra dealers that acceplt paypal ordering generic viagra in canada generic sildenafil viagra viagra and zoloft and premature ejaculation kamagra cheap viagra viagra is it necessary uk free viagra delivery viagra hamsters viagra methyl 12 viagra zeenegra viagra viagra cialis levitra buy viagra counterfeit viagra halogram connecticut generic meltabs viagra 5 sildenafil citrate viagra 12citrate generic sildenafil viagra viagra coupon code flomax 2b viagra cialis viagra joint corporate renewal cialis and levitra viagra medications internet how to purchase viagra viagra and liver disease buy cheap viagra online here kamagra viagra uk uk viagra prices norvasc viagra and viagra doctor tempe generic viagra online order get a free viagra pen drug insert viagra 25mg viagra buy viagra cheapest x cite herbal viagra for woman viagra immediately started sucking and licking 2cialis generic levitra viagra viagra for heart attack viagra ed viagra clones can viagra be taken with norvasc viagra and purchase liquid viagra shot viagra prescribing information the effectof viagra on the eyes cheap free viagra jack nicholson quote viagra songs about viagra levitra viagra vs is viagra cheaper in mexico viagra equivalent cheap pharmaceutical viagra viagra mail order pfizer stock and viagra infertility primary sources for viagra price for generic viagra viagra may help reduce add yahoo free levitra free cialis free viagra provesrta women viagra viagra and flying generic viagra x mg alcohol and viagra buy viagra the best quality pills viagra rezeptfrei ways to get viagra viagra cialias viagra secondary pulmonary hypertension baby compare price best viagra generic generic zenegra viagra online is viagra addictive cheap online softtabs viagra alternative to viagra online viagra england erectyle dysfunction viagra generic list new site viagra low price for viagra viagra canada price buy viagra online bingo game european viagra mistress viagra dysfunction erectile viagra herbal online viagra what is the price of viagra viagra levitra sexual health 1998 medical breakthrough viagra viagra ejaculation equivalentes de viagra viagra for pulmonary hypertension viagra bournemouth ads kamagra kwiktabs meltabs generic viagra about generic viagra levitra regalis viagra trivia viagra pfizer lower price using viagra and upset stomach steroids and viagra cheapest uk supplier viagra online viagra prescription canada cialis and levitra viagra order pharmacy kamagra viagra oral jelly viagra no prescreption uk viagra sales free viagra videos viagra use longterm cialis or viagra viagra cialis heart problems viagra 100mg usage google groups cheap order viagra after ejaculation viagra free generic sample viagra viagra drug testing can i buy viagra flomax vs viagra best prices on viagra cialis imperial levitra libidus viagra yohimbe viagra nz viagra and speed viagra safety information medical viagra sildenafil citrate generic viagra like pill viagra women’s natural viagra generic viagra reviews viagra best prices compare viagra and levitra generic viagra and generic soma is viagra a schedualed drug viagra compared to levitra cheap free price viagra fake online viagra viagra for sale viagra ireland viagra life abc video premature baby viagra chemical formula of viagra zeengra viagra woman using viagra cheapest generic viagra 99 cents each viagra nyquil which is better lavitra or viagra is viagra illegal viagra viris high blood pressure collegehumor picture viagra for women gifts ambien viagra eebm diabetes viagra viagra alternative review viagra vs cialis licensed pharmacies online non perscription viagra generic viagra without visa is viagra safe for dogs viagra purchase viagra etc cialis comparison viagra cat 16 viagra viagra generic best one counter drug over viagra buy cheap site viagra overnight delivery generic viagra using viagra recreationally local viagra egyptian viagra online prescription viagra phentermine meridia adipex viagra cancun viagra lead investigator viagra cialis compared ru viagra yybbs viagra online no doctor prescription viagra sample free viagra genaric cheapest viagra tablets can viagra cause peyronie’s disease cheap viagra without prescription 2737 aid prevacid viagra zyrtec toprol-xl and viagra virtual viagra female viagra drink viagra paypal france sale online viagra legitimate viagra viagra and blood pressure pills viagra coverage california viagra 24 hours delivery buy viagra in reliable online drugstore viagra pills online horn herbal viagra $2.00 viagra viagra instructions dosage comparison levitra cialis viagra attack heart viagra illegal viagra viagra pfizer viagra sideaffects cheapest viagra in uk che how long does viagra last viagra cure for jetlag tabs viagra tadalafil viagra vs viagra generic buy supplements of viagra viagra casino poker blackjack discount phentermine and viagra texas viagra caverta generic viagra fr women cheap online purchase viagra viagra after prostate surgery viagra best way to use cialis levitra viagra compare nascar viagra expiration date viagra daily viagra for erectile dysfunction viagra warning viagra refills herbal viagra wholesale what to expect from viagra generic name for viagra viagra uk viagra prescription alternative viagra cheap pharmacy viagra free sample viagra online viagra online shop online approval buy viagra other drug online viagra over the internet mail order for viagra tablets viagra for geritol song using viagra suppository viagra for less that 2 dollars using viagra and cialis viagra affiliate program results and risks of viagra new viagra does it viagra work 5citrate generic sildenafil viagra 100 viagra online overnight delivery viagra non-formulary question health net viagra music pc100 viagra motherboard murder mystery character holly long viagra viagra as vasolidadtor in muscle contest viagra alternative herbal supplement buy viagra without a prescription viagra what goes up time viagra cheap prescription district of columbia viagra flomax interaction free viagra samples befor viagra blue haze 1viagra cialis levitra how to take viagra interresults order viagra charlotte wells viagra be a man use viagra viagra and cialas tonytigeraz viagra 2007 mexican buy viagra from safeway oysters spiked viagra maryland kamagra about viagra being stressed while using viagra viagra reminder ads buy online viagra securely viagra valium kamagra discreet uk europe nascar driver s viagra viagra for women pfizer mexican viagra viagra discussion forum viagra theme viagra sydney levitra dosing compared to viagra viagra and heart problems phentermine tramadol viagra adipex effects of viagra on women palmeiro viagra ddmac viagra free trial sample of viagra viagra for under $2 viagra and prostate viagra plant leaf online viagra buy viagra online tadalis free try viagra viagra t shirt buy kuroeb online viagra viagra best quality lowest prices cheapest viagra cialis compare levitra viagra best alternative for viagra viagra andbeer keywords viagra when was viagra released in australia kakao site viagra viagra safe for dogs buy viagra prescription america carisoprodol generic viagra softtabs php viagra interaction with doxizosin viagra and bodybuilding viagra generics in india online pharmacy uk viagra mexico viagra

Tags: Europe, London, Canada, Pending Home Sale Index, FEMA, PHSI, Canadian Housing Market, NAR, National Association of Realtors

Comments Off on Housing Fantasy Is The New Reality Television

With the credit market turmoil, I have begun to wonder whether I am seeing red and gravitating towards all things red. In real estate parlance, this could mean the real estate market is HOT or the real estate market represents DANGER.

Red is a color that represents an extreme.

The other day, I got the second issue of Portfolio magazine, which is a terrific new Conde Nast publication and has a great interactive web site. The covers alone are worth the purchase price. There have been a few articles that cover real estate topics. The one I really enjoyed was called Little House on the Red Prairie by John Cassidy.

The US is the largest debtor in the world with $10.7 trillion on $13.6 trillion economy (hey that’s 79% financing, sort of). Once the Fed started raising rates in June 2004, in the first of 17 consecutive increases, there was an expectation that housing would cool. But some of the highest appreciation rates for appreciation rates occured after this point.

Since the middle of 2004, the Fed has taken the federal funds rate—what it charges banks on overnight lending—from 1 percent to 5.25 percent. Nor mally, such a dramatic shift would prompt a sell-off in long-dated Treasury bonds and a rise in long-term interest rates. This time, that didn’t happen. Thanks to all those central banks stocking up on paper issued by Uncle Sam, the interest rate on 10-year and 30-year Treasurys, rather than jumping to 7 percent—which might have been predicted based on past experience—stayed closer to 5 percent.

The author suggests that China’s investment in low-yield treasuries helps keep access to US markets and technology. Low mortgage rates fueled the burst in home price appreciation of 2003-2005.

And then of course, there is the little red paper clip…

In today’s New York Times, there was a very entertaining article about how Kyle MacDonald was able to trade a red paper clip for a house in: Trading Up From Red Paper Clip to White Picket Fence. This lead to a book deal along the way.

Of course that’s a simplistic version of the story. Basically he posts an announcement on Craigslist and the trades keep growing in scale. Public relations followed and a town in Canada opted to give him a house. Not a full proof way to get into real estate, but its certainly different and creative.

It was a dull day in Montreal, two summers past. The young MacDonald, his fair girlfriend toiling at her labors, was Lying About the House in their minuscule apartment, thinking about What a Drag It Is to Pay Rent and how nice it would be to Own Your Own Place and Stuff Like That when a thought occurred. What if he could trade a red paper clip for a house? Not in one swap but in a bunch of swaps, as in the game Bigger and Better, which he did play when he was but a youth.

Here’s an ABC News segment…

This story should probably be a staple (sorry) of everyone’s news reading today.

Tags: Canada, China, Canadian Housing Market

1 Comment

This week has been a whirlwind for me personally so my quantity of posts has been less than stellar.

I had been retained as a real estate expert for the prosecution (US Government) in media baron Conrad Black‘s federal trial, going on now in Chicago. I testified in Chicago on Tuesday.

I had the pleasure of intereacting with really sharp and energetic DOJ attorneys and FBI agents.

Obviously, I can provide no specific comments about the case, but it was a terrific experience (not even factoring in the US Department of Justice cafeteria food). I have performed court testimony in many different matters over the years but this trial was one of the highlights of my professional career. My testimony was widely covered in the media (see links below).

Normally I wouldn’t even bring this sort of event up, but I was struck by the fact that there has been so little coverage of the trial in New York, that I was surprised by the amount of media presence in the courtroom.

Here’s an excerpt from the Chicago Tribune:

Miller’s testimony bolstered the government’s charge that Black, Hollinger International’s former chairman and chief executive, received a sweetheart deal for the apartment, defrauding shareholders of millions of dollars. The apartment sale, prosecutors allege, was part of a scheme involving Black and four former executives to steal $84 million from Hollinger International, now called Sun-Times Media Group Inc.

Summary of some of the coverage:

Expert says New York apartment worth $8.5 million [Chicago Tribune]
Jury sees Black taking boxes [Chicago Sun-Times]
Prosecution drops one charge against Black [Globe and Mail – Canada]
Lord Black breaks a habit and stays silent in defence [The Times – UK]
Price for apartment low [The Province – Canada]

Ok, back to work.

Tags: Canada, Canadian Housing Market

1 Comment

It looks like there has been extra butter and syrup applied to the international housing market this year (ok, this was the last pancake reference, I promise). It is amazing how much the housing markets outside the US have seen significant appreciation over the past year.

When considering the impetus for the recent US housing boom and the current slow down, this certainly makes for a strong argument that the cause and effect was not just about the US economy since the US has behaved as much as many other countries has. So perhaps we don’t need to be quite so zeroed in on Bernanke and the Fed and perhaps look toward other factors such as the trade deficit and the weakness of the dollar.

Here’s a sample of recent news links:

• Canada [CBC]

• El Salvador [WaPo]

• India [India Telegraph]

• Australia [National Nine]

• New Zealand [Stuff]

• Norway [Norway Post]

• China [China Daily]

• Pakistan [Daily Times]

• Moscow [Moscow Times]

• UK [Telegraph]

• Ireland [Irish Examiner]

Have I left any countries out that have seen significant growth?

Tags: Canada, Ben Bernanke, China, Canadian Housing Market

Comments Off on Links: International HOusing Prices [IHOP], Not Flat As A Pancake

With the housing market not seeing the returns of the past few years, investors have been looking at alternatives for a while now. Wall Street is seeing green with the DJIA moving close to a record high. However, some investors are seeing gold in the red-hot commodities market or just plain gold [WaPo], which acts both as a safe-haven asset [theStreet.com] against geopolitical uncertainty and as an inflation hedge against rising energy prices.

Upbeat bulls are clearly in the majority on Wall Street right now [WaPo], and truly negative bears are hard to find. But many stock traders and market analysts can identify reasons to be worried about the current state of affairs, and some are actively predicting at least a short downturn by the end of the year.

Gold futures, often a haven for “gold bugs” — investors concerned about inflation and geopolitical or stock market turmoil — rose above $700 in New York this week for the first time since 1980. Silver is at a 25-year high, and copper and platinum both set records in the week, though copper pulled back a bit by week’s end.

Perhaps we will start seeing Gold Bubble Blogs fairly soon as the price continues to rise rapidly.

Tags: Canada, Canadian Housing Market

Comments Off on Investor Path: Stock Markets -> Housing -> Commodities -> Gold?

A survey [WSJ] by Royal Bank of Canada’s RBC Capital Markets unit of 1001 consumers found that most owners think their homes will continue to appreciate and the housing boom has not affected their spending patterns.

The results of this survey seems to indicate that consumer perceptions of their spending habits contradicts the Fed’s pronouncement that the consumer is driving the economy through extracting equity from their homes.

The sample was spread across geography, gender and income brackets, to make it representative of the general U.S. population. The survey’s margin of error was plus or minus 3%.

• Only 10% of homeowners polled said they believe that rising real-estate values had affected their spending.
  

• 85% of homeowners surveyed said they had experienced real-estate gains in the past three years
  

• 70% saw gains of more than 10% in the past three years
  

• 50% had extracted funds through home equity loans
  

• 60% expect home values to rise at least 5% annualy for the next 3 years.
  

• 3% expect home values to fall over the next 3 years.
  

• 60% said rising energy costs were causing them to reign in spending.
  

Tags: Canada, Canadian Housing Market

3 Comments

There has been a heated debate between the US and Canada over the tariffs being assigned to softwood imports into the US. In 2002, the US implemented these tariffs, which are reportedly contrary to the NAFTA agreement. [Note: Sub.] A 3-person arbitration board ruled that the US must refund over $5B in tariffs collected from imported Canadian softwood. The US lost the appeal on the ruling but still has refused to refund tariffs already levied.

There has been a lot of controversy surrounding the softwood tariff debate. Canada exports more than 50% of the lumber they produce to the US and the US will need more lumber as a result of Hurricane Katrina and the on-going housing boom. Look for rising prices for construction supplies as a result.
[Casper Star Tribune]
[National Post]
[CBC]

The housing boom has placed a significant pressure on the availability of lumber for construction. Wood exports from Canada are a significant source of lumber for the US and a major export of Canada.

In light of Hurricane Katrina’s extensive damages to the gulf area housing stock of Lousiana, Mississippi and Alabama, demand for construction supplies are expected to increase significantly and at least one advocate for affordable housing wants the tariffs removed.

Lets hope these two allies and neighbors can resolve their differences and get this crises resolved soon.

Tags: Hurricane, Canada, Hurricane Katrina, Canadian Housing Market

1 Comment