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Posts Tagged ‘Absorption’

[Long List of Records] 3Q 2013 Manhattan Sales Report

October 4, 2013 | 10:32 am | | Reports |

We published our report on Manhattan market sales for 3Q 2013 this week.   I’ve been writing this series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

My Take

  • Inventory continues to challenge the market, falling to the lowest level since we began tracking it more than 13 years ago.
  • Sales surged as fence-sitters rushed in to buy before mortgage rates rose any further, causing the largest market share of co-op sales (62%) in 9-years.
  • Sales rose to second highest level in 24 years, the highest since 2007.
  • While overall median sales price slipped 2%, it was only due to a shift in mix to smaller sales. Both co-op and condo median sales prices increased year-over-year.
  • The 1-bedroom market share of sales reached a 15-year high.
  • The combination of surging sales and falling inventory resulted in fastest absorption rate (market pace) on record at 3.6 months.
  • The market share of new development closings fell to decade low of 6.2% as finished product continues to be scarce, but the rise in new development activity should reverse this trend in 2014.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

The third quarter was a period of records and near records in the Manhattan residential apartment market. There were 3,837 sales in the third quarter, 30% higher than the prior year quarter and the second highest total in more than 24 years. The sharp gains in the number of sales likely reflects a release of pent-up demand accumulated over the past several years combined with the concern over rising mortgage rates. The highest level of sales reached was 3,939 in the second quarter of 2007, just over a year before the Lehman tipping point and onset of the global credit crunch in late 2008. Listing inventory also reached a new record by falling 21.9% to 4,567, the lowest level reached since this metric was tracked in 2000…


The charts will be updated shortly but the data tables are already updated to include 3Q 2013.

Here is some of the press coverage for the report.


The Elliman Report: 3Q 2013 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2013 Manhattan Sales [Douglas Elliman]

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[Manhattan Absorption] August 2013 – Don’t Blink or It’s Gone (Except Trophies)

September 9, 2013 | 3:42 pm | Charts |

[click to expand]

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month for that market area.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

August 2013 v. August 2012

[click images to expand]

Compared to last year, everything below $5M (all but a few % of the market) is flying off the shelves as evidenced by very fast absorption rates. The $1M to $1.49M Manhattan co-op market is seeing absorption rates as low as 2.4 months, an incredibly fast pace. The weakest segment appears to be $5M and $10M+ condos, which are seeing absorption rates of about 12 months and 28 months respectively. High end co-ops, especially those above $10M (<1% of the market) are also absorbing slowing, averaging about 16 months. The balance of the co-op market (nearly all of it) is being absorbed faster than the 10 year average absorption rate.


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2013 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel]

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[Manhattan Absorption] July 2013 – Most of Market At Breakneck Pace, But North of $5M Slows

August 22, 2013 | 10:54 am | Charts |

[click to expand]

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

July 2013 v. July 2012

[click images to expand]

This month I began to make the Y-Axis fixed in height so better side-by-side comparisons can be made in the future. The disparity in pace of the market between the $5M+ (slowing) and the remainder of the market (brisk) widens. An exception to this seems to be the co-op market from $5M to $10M which is absorbing at an average pace while the condo market in the same price range is moving much more slowly. This is likely because re-sale units are competing with the surge in new condo units entering the market (most won’t start closing until next year) and are often over listed, influenced by the new dev pricing even though buyers view new development with a premium value.


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2013 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel]

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[Three Cents Worth NY #240] Manhattan Market Tighter for Rest of Us

August 8, 2013 | 12:09 pm | | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Back from a too-short vacation and thought I’d veer away from luxury marketspeak and focus on “non-luxury”—that little 90 percent of the market that doesn’t get enough attention. Today there’s a story out on the Manhattan “non-luxury” market using the data in these charts. It basically shows that when you remove the top 10 percent of the market from the housing data, pace of absorption and collapse of inventory is much more severe than when presented together…

[click to expand chart]

 


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed:
Manhattan Market Tighter for Rest of Us [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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[Fast Pace] 2Q 2013 Long Island Sales Report

July 26, 2013 | 10:39 am | | Reports |

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 2Q 2013.

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Fastest market pace since 2005 with absorption rate at 9.3 months.
  • Inventory fell sharply as closed sales and pending sales jumped.
  • Housing prices edged higher.
  • Tight credit continued to keep inventory off market.
  • Concern about rising mortgage rates pushed more buyers into the market.

Here’s an excerpt from the 2Q 2013 report:

…Although the pace of the Long Island market has been accelerating with more sales and less supply, prices continue to see only modest gains from the prior year levels. There were 16,300 listings in total inventory at the end of the second quarter, 17.5% less than in the same period last year. However, new inventory added to the market expanded by 8.7% to 12,292 over the same period, possibly providing some relief to homebuyers in the coming quarters…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 13 data. Check out the charts by browsing in our chart library.


The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Long Island Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

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[Help From Brooklyn] 2Q 2013 Queens Report

July 11, 2013 | 9:41 pm | | Reports |

Douglas Elliman just published the market report on the Queens sales market that we author. This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Inventory remained at 8-year low.
  • Sales increased causing fastest absorption rate in 5-years.
  • Upward price pressure from lack of supply is apparent.
  • Market benefiting from Manhattan and Brooklyn market tightness.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…Despite the continued trend of declining supply, the Queens housing market experienced an increase in sales resulting in the fastest pace seen in 5 years. Listing inventory fell 28.9% to 6,225 from the prior year quarter, the lowest quarterly inventory recorded in the 8 years of this report series. The number of sales expanded 8.1% to 2,493 sales from the prior year quarter. The combination of falling supply and rising demand resulted in an 6-year record low absorption rate or market pace of 7.5 months, measured by the number of months it took to sell all inventory at the current rate of sales. The lack of supply is beginning to reveal upward price pressure in the market…

Our data tables and market charts are now updated with 2Q13 data.

Press coverage




The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Queens Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Queens Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]
Queens Market Charts [Miller Samuel]

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[Plan B] 2Q 2013 Brooklyn Report

July 11, 2013 | 9:13 pm | | Reports |

We just published our report on the Brooklyn sales market. This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Inventory falls to lowest second quarter in 5-years.
  • Inventory holding back further gains in sales.
  • Price indicators set 10-year records.
  • Faster marketing times and less negotiability between buyers and sellers.
  • New development market share remains consistent with 4-year average.
  • Mortgage lending remains tight but general economy is improving.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The low inventory phenomenon continued through the Brooklyn spring market in 2013, driving the price indicators higher. Listing inventory hit the record low second quarter at 4,704, down 18.5% from the same period last year. This was also the third lowest quarterly inventory total in the five years we have been tracking this metric. The number of sales declined by 6.7% to 1,855 from the prior year quarter, restrained by limited supply. As inventory fell faster than sales, the pace of the market accelerated. The monthly absorption rate, defined as the number of months it took to sell all listing inventory at the current pace of sales, fell to 7.6 months from 8.7 months in the prior-year quarter…

You can build your own custom data tables and view market charts, now updated with 2Q 13 data.

Press coverage


The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Brooklyn Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Brooklyn Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]
Brooklyn Sales Market Charts [Miller Samuel]

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[Release of Pent-up] 2Q 2013 Manhattan Sales Report

July 2, 2013 | 3:37 pm | | Reports |

We published our report on Manhattan market sales for 2Q 2013 today.   I’ve been writing this series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

My Take

-Inventory fell sharply from same time last year to the lowest 2Q on record (13 years). Tight credit and rising sales are keeping supply low.
-Sales jumped despite low supply. Most active spring since 2007 and lowest 2Q inventory in 13 years.
-All price indicators increased from year ago levels. Low inventory and release of pent-up demand pressed prices higher. Tight credit tempered rate of increase.
-Combination of rising sales and falling inventory resulted in fastest absorption rate on record.
-Listing discount (spread in price between buyers and sellers) narrowed as sellers control market.
-New development closing market share remains low, but expect to reverse trend next year as closings begin.
-Luxury market continued to see more modest rate of inventory decline than overall market.
-Rising mortgage rates at end of quarter had no apparent impact on results. Going forward, rising rates are expected to temper pace of sales and price growth but aid easing of credit.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The Manhattan housing market continues to experience record low inventory levels, but surprisingly enough, is also seeing an uptick in the number of sales. The record high levels of sales in the fourth quarter in 2012 prompted expectations that the first half of 2013 would lose sales volume as a result of last year’s “poaching from the future.” However, after several years of consumer uncertainty culminating with the national election buildup to the federal fiscal cliff deadline at the end of the 2012, there was a release of pent-up demand into 2013, pressing prices modestly higher. The number of sales jumped 18.8% to 3,144 from the prior year quarter, the most active spring market in terms of sales since 2007…


The charts and data tables are updated to include 2Q 2013.

Here is some of the press coverage for the report.


The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Manhattan Sales [Douglas Elliman]

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[Manhattan Absorption] May 2013 – Fast Pace Below $2M Remains, Slowing On Top

June 6, 2013 | 7:00 am | Charts |


[click to expand]

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

May 2013 v. May 2012

[click images to expand]

Significant acceleration in the pace of the market below $2M, not much change from $3M to $10M and continued slow down north of $10M


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2013 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel]

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[Manhattan Absorption] April 2013 – The Bottom 90% is Brisk

May 12, 2013 | 12:59 pm | Charts |

[click to expand]

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

April 2013 v. April 2012

[click images to expand]

The market pace continues to be brisk below the $3M level (incidentally that accounts for 90% of the market).


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2013 [Miller Samuel] Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel]

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[Manhattan Absorption] March 2013 – What a Difference a Year Makes

April 7, 2013 | 11:10 am | Charts |


[click to expand]

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

March 2013 v. March 2012


[click images to expand]

In sub-$3M the market pace is moving twice as fast as the 10-year average and also faster than the $3M+ markets. Especially note the acceleration below $1M in the side by side comparison to 2012 above.


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2013 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel]

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[Manhattan Absorption] February 2013 Shows Not Enough Supply To Wet A Sponge

March 18, 2013 | 1:16 pm | Charts |


[click to expand]

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

February 2013 v. February 2012


[click images to expand]

Although everything seems to be absorbed at an historically fast pace, co-ops are generally being absorbed more slowly in nearly every price segment below $5M.


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2013 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel]

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