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Thoughts The co-op and condo market absorption rates for the $10 million+ market have slowed over the past year while the pace of the sub-$3 million remains extremely brisk. The $3 million to $10 million shows limited change and some stabilization.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. (I got tired of the red/gray look in 2014 so I changed it) The blue/red line shows the 10-year quarterly average for context. The pink/orange line represents the overall average absorption rate of the most recently completed month for that market area.

Definition Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the current annualized pace of sales activity in our market report series.

Manhattan Market Absorption Charts [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Inventory, Absorption, number of sales

Comments Off on Manhattan Monthly Absorption Rate – August 2015

Read my latest Bloomberg View column Housing’s Misleading Health Indicator. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

The National Association of Realtors will release its monthly U.S. existing home sales report tomorrow. Among other things, the report includes what’s known as the absorption rate, or how many months it would take to sell all inventory at the current sales pace. This report and the media coverage around it will inevitably provide the well-worn insight that when the rate is less than six months, housing is “healthy”…

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Tags: Absorption, healthy

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Thoughts A noticeable downshift from last year yet the market remains brisk. Nearly all price segments are showing slower absorption rates with more weakness seen above the $3M threshold (roughly where the luxury market begins i.e. top 10%).

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. (I got tired of the red/gray look in 9-2014 so I changed it) The blue/red line shows the 10-year quarterly average for context. The pink/orange line represents the overall average absorption rate of the most recently completed month for that market area. 

Definition Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the current annualized pace of sales activity in our market report series.

Manhattan Market Absorption Charts [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Absorption

Comments Off on [Manhattan Absorption] September 2014 – While All Markets Cool, Sub $3M Remains Brisk

Read my latest Bloomberg View column Housing’s New Wealth Effect. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

It was a busy week for housing market reports. The U.S. Census published its new home-sales results for August, showing an 18 percent gain from the prior month and a 33 percent increase from August 2013. News headlines relied on words such as “surged” and “soared” to describe the results.

Only a few days earlier, the National Association of Realtors released its existing home-sales report for August, which showed month-over-month sales falling for the first time in four months. The inventory of unsold properties was 4.5 percent higher than a year earlier. I recently addressed the market slowdown in “Understanding Housing’s Dog Days.”

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Tags: Existing Home Sales, Inventory, New Home Sales, Absorption, Wealth Effect, U.S. Census, NAR, National Association of Realtors

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Thoughts Not a big difference from last year. Sub-$3M is generally very tight with not much variation between price categories in each region. There isn’t much difference in the $10M+ market. Condos are slower than co-ops overall, but not by much. The difference is being seen in the $5M to $10M, which is moving more slowly moving than it was a year ago.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. (I got tired of the red/gray look in 9-2014 so I changed it) The blue/red line shows the 10-year quarterly average for context. The pink/orange line represents the overall average absorption rate of the most recently completed month for that market area. 

Definition Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the current annualized pace of sales activity in our market report series.

Manhattan Market Absorption Charts [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Absorption

3 Comments

[click to expand] Thoughts Not a significant change from a year ago. The absorption rate is generally a little faster than the year ago pace when you are talking about the sub-$3M market and a little slower from an already cooling rate above that threshold. Hi end condos – over $10M – are seeing a 32.3 month absorption rate which is extremely slow largely because of the new product entering the market.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

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I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month for that market area.

Manhattan Market Absorption Charts [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Absorption

Comments Off on [Manhattan Absorption] May 2014 – Swimming in high-end condos.

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Thoughts
You can see a slight slow down in the pace of the market at or above $5M while the remainder of the market continued to accelerate as evidenced by faster (lower) absorption rates. It makes sense since there is no new development entering the market to ease the supply shortage of the “lower 90%” of the market.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month for that market area.

Definition
Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in our market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

Manhattan Market Absorption Charts [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Absorption

1 Comment

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Thoughts
All price segments of the market are generally showing a faster market pace than the same month in the prior year. The top 1% ($10M+) had slower absorption rates for co-ops and condos, but not by much. Inventory began to “bottom” in recent quarters so we may not see much more compression in the market pace in the coming months.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month for that market area.

Definition
Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in our market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

Manhattan Market Absorption Charts [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Absorption

Comments Off on [Manhattan Absorption] March 2014 – All But Top 1% Seeing Faster Pace

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Thoughts
For the overall inventory in the Manhattan market, the operative phrase remains “tight supply” with no real relief in sight. While we are seeing a nominal improvement year to date in 2014, the operative word remains “nominal.” $10M+ has long had bloated supply with lots of “I’ll sell if you pay that” listings. $5M and up continues to see the most supply relative to demand. Supply is chronically low below the $3M threshold and most acute between $1M and $2M.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month for that market area.

Definition
Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in our market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2014 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2013 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Absorption

Comments Off on [Manhattan Absorption] February 2014 – “Tight Supply” as a Market Rant

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I took a look at the trend in Manhattan’s listing inventory on a weekly basis since the beginning of 2009 and matched it against the market share of inventory for each of the four regions. It looks like the West Side (yellow line) was the only region to consistently lose market share over the past several years.

Since overall inventory has been falling during this period, this suggests that the West Side is tighter than the other regions but the absorption rate is about the same as the other regions.

Why?

Tags: Listing Inventory, Absorption, Market Share

Comments Off on Manhattan’s West Side Inventory Losing More Market Share Than Others

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Thoughts
For the overall Manhattan Market, in fact for the “Bottom 99%” (I love saying that) of the market, the absorption rate is well below the year ago period. Record high sales and record low inventory has pressed the absorption rate to the floor. For the $10M+ market (top 1%) the absorption rate has slow sharply from a year ago. While this segment has always been a LOT slower than the market overall (see archives below), it has slowed considerably. The next highest segment $5M-$10M has essentially remained the same with the remainder of the submarkets seeing much more rapid absorption rates over the same period. All regions saw similar changes from the year ago period.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month for that market area.

Definition
Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in our market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2013 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Absorption

Comments Off on [Manhattan Absorption] January 2014 – “Bottom 99%” of Market Is Tight

Ok, that’s a lot of hyperbole, the charts do look pretty cool all lined up below. Although the Matrix blog was quiet as we transitioned to a new web site, I still wrote a bunch of posts on Curbed over the past several months and thought I’d share. Here’s the list. Click on each blog title to go to the full post.

December 18, 2013 Curbed NY #256 Finding 2014 Clues In Oft-Overlooked Data

December 10, 2013 Curbed NY #255 Dogging Manhattan Apartment Values

December 3, 2013 Curbed NY #254 Tallest Rental Chart in Manhattan History

November 27, 2013 Curbed NY #253 Charting Manhattan’s So Not Tryptophan-Like Absorption Rate

November 19, 2013 Curbed NY #252 Sales Prices Way More Volatile Than Rents

November 14, 2013 Curbed NY #251 Manhattan Listings May Have Bottomed

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

Tags: Three Cents Worth, Curbed NY, Curbed Miami, Absorption, 3CW

Comments Off on Overwhelming Visual Recap of Prior ‘Three Cents Worth’ Columns #250 to #256