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Speculation On Whether NAR Investment Sales Stats Are Speculative

Here’s coverage of the stat release on second homes from NAR. Second-home sales at all-time high [CNN] [1].

Are home still a good buy? Americans seem to think so — they bought second homes, both as vacation properties but especially for investment purposes, in record numbers last year.

Source: Calculated Risk

A hat tip to Northern New Jersey Real Estate Bubble [2] for alerting me to the post on Calculated Risk about Second Homes [3]. [See larger graph.] [4]

Calculated Risk (CR) uses the numbers NAR actually reported on prior occasions to show how the current press release has indicated that something is wrong with their numbers. NAR says 39.9% of all sales in 2005 were second home sales.

I find that number very hard to believe.

But Calculated Risk, using the actual figures, indicates that the number is closer to 47.2%.

I find that number very hard to believe as well.

Nearly 50% of all home purchases were for investment purposes? I don’t see how.

Now think about the fact that the Housing Indexes that I have discussed in recent posts [5] will be based on these indexes. I can only imagine the potential litigation if NAR is really in error here – especially basing an index on data provided by a trade group rather than an independent resource.

Update: Calculated Risk revised the chart. Corrected: Second Homes Graph [6]