It’s bad enough that the current NAR chief economist has made himself irrelevant by continues to say some crazy things about the housing market:

Two things homebuyers shouldn’t have to worry about is a recession or long-term credit crunch.

Yun, who admits that he has to balance empirical data with a role of advocacy for the housing market, said that while the beginning of 2008 has been weak so far, the second half of the year should see an uptick that could lead to home value growth of more than 20 percent in the next five years. “I think there is enough momentum to bring the buyers back into the market,” Yun said.

His adventures are well chronicled in Lawrence Yun Watch which followed the widely read David Lereah Watch who was his predecessor.

Now we are seeing the former cheerleader for NAR, David Lereah espousing negative views on housing.

David Lereah was the poster boy for all that was wrong with the housing boom. He wasn’t that subtle about spin, or perhaps an organization like his didn’t have the blogosphere to contend with before he came on the scene.

David Lereah moved on to Move and when they experienced problems, moved on to his startup Reecon Advisors, which provides advice to Wall Street. Interesting. Didn’t Wall Street read the newspapers during the housing boom? What advice are they looking for?

I guess the only point to this post is that I find it amazing that someone, who is so smart and articulate, take the dubious path that he took, and still be able to sell books and be paid for advice, which contrasts what he doled out for years with NAR and apparently trained his successor well.

I have so much to learn.


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3 Responses to “[Move-ing Violation] After Sunny Skies, Chicken Little Sees His Shadow”

  1. clark says:

    Jonathan:

    Another great piece. One might speculate that L. Yun is preparing himself for his next position: spokesman for, maybe, FNMA, UBS or even Hillary. Not being troubled by facts makes him the perfect spinmaster for those for whom reality and transparency is secondary.

    More personally, one is tempted to guess that there is an inverse correlation between the quantity and quality of your blogs and the numbers of coop and condo sales in Manhattan. Your new-found productivity on Matrix is troubling for those of us hoping the r.e. market in NY isn’t as bad as some may forecast.

    Clark

  2. I think the correlation between blog post volume and NY sales is a false positive. While it is logical based on sales activity and my renewed passion zeal to blog (no correlation to my departure from RL either), we are busier than we have been in 4 years with legal support work like divorce, litigation and estate work and less from purchase appraisal business. But in reality it all comes down to the color of the shirts I am now wearing. 😉

  3. I’m with you Jonathan – it’s outrageous.

    Can you believe that the REAL MEN OF GENIUS at USA Today named Yun as one of the top 10 economic forecasters in the country?? #5 to be exact. Yun has been wrong in his projections 90% of the time. Chief Yun said of the deteriorating housing market last year, “To a great extent, we can thank steady media coverage of the real estate market ‘correction’ for unfounded consumer concern.”

    Yun is the perfect example of what is wrong with the National Association of Realtors. The “head in the sand” attitude will be what will eventually bring down the old guard real estate model and its overly protected MLS.

    This is the same NAR that gives its members the answers to test questions in their various classes required for designations. You pay the money, you get the answers. Very embarrassing.

    There’s a pundit on every corner but did you see yesterday’s article in the Economist, “Map of Misery, America may well be only halfway through the house-price bust.” It’s a good analysis of the various house price indices, one of which is the NAR figures.

    Thanks for your body of work.