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[Manhattan Absorption] August 2013 – Don’t Blink or It’s Gone (Except Trophies)

[1] [click to expand]

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series [2] reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month for that market area.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

August 2013 v. August 2012
[3] [4]

[click images to expand]

Compared to last year, everything below $5M (all but a few % of the market) is flying off the shelves as evidenced by very fast absorption rates. The $1M to $1.49M Manhattan co-op market is seeing absorption rates as low as 2.4 months, an incredibly fast pace. The weakest segment appears to be $5M and $10M+ condos, which are seeing absorption rates of about 12 months and 28 months respectively. High end co-ops, especially those above $10M (<1% of the market) are also absorbing slowing, averaging about 16 months. The balance of the co-op market (nearly all of it) is being absorbed faster than the 10 year average absorption rate.

Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2013 [Miller Samuel [5]]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel [6]]