[1]
[click to open report]
Where we’ve been
Knight Frank’s Global House Price Index [1] is published quarterly and tracks the performance of mainstream national housing markets around the world. They use Case Shiller results for the US market.
Europe at bottom:
With the Eurozone now in its second recession in three years buyer confidence is at an all-time low and it is no coincidence that all the bottom 12 rankings are occupied by European countries this quarter.
The top performers:
But it’s not all bad news. Six markets recorded double-digit annual price growth in the year to September; Brazil, Hong Kong, Turkey, Russia, Colombia and Austria.
Where we’re going
[2]
[click to open report]
I help provide their Manhattan and Miami insights and they liked the way I characterize the state of luxury housing as a “safe-haven” and the “new international currency.” Here are the top line observations in their Q4 12 Prime Global Forecast [2]:
• In 2013, we expect prime residential prices across the 14 cities included in our
forecast to rise by 2.5% on average, with Moscow, Miami and Dubai being the
strongest performers.
• A sharp slowdown in the global economy is the highest risk for the world’s
prime residential markets closely followed by government cooling measures.
• However, the current economic uncertainty is also considered a key driver of
demand in prime cities as HNWIs seek the shelter of ‘safe-haven’ investments.
• Supply, or the lack of it, will be a key determinant of price performance in cities
such as New York, Moscow and Miami in 2013.
• We envisage that government-imposed regulatory measures will keep a lid on
price growth in Asia in 2013 but the west-east shift in the economic balance of
power suggests more promising prospects in the medium term.
Q3 12 Global House Price Index [Knight Frank [1]]
Q4 12 Prime Global Forecast [Knight Frank [2]]