Getting Graphic is a semi-sort-of-irregular collection of our favorite BIG real estate-related chart(s).
In Floyd Norris’ [Seeing Something to Cheer in a Big but Stabilizing Inventory of Homes NYT he postulates that while inventory is at record levels, the levels may be stabilizing. The stock market seemed to predict the housing market decline before it happened (thats what stock markets are supposed to do) and now several builder stocks are up.
At the end of August, the latest figures available, there were 4.5 million homes and condos available for sale, more than double the number in late 2001 and up 35 percent from a year earlier. It was the highest figure ever.
But as the second chart shows, the year-over-year growth in inventories peaked in May, with a 38 percent rise.
Of course, there are always plenty of non-believers in such optimism, albeit modest, such as this one.
Manhattan saw a similar pattern of easing inventory growth this quarter, with listing inventory growth easing off for the first time in 18 months (although the stabilization was an offset between co-op levels falling and condos rising).
Assuming inventory is stabilizing on a national level, the key now is how much time passes by before inventory contracts (no pun intended). If inventory stays firm but remains at record levels, I suspect marked pricing declines in certain markets, namely investor laiden markets, are a distinct concern.
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could it be that this easing of inventory growth is simply due to the seasonality of the market (i.e., higher inventory in the spring relative to the fall)?
if you look at the overall volitility of the charts, it is hard to see a clear shift in trend based on a a few months
Thats possible scenario I suppose, we didn’t really see a seasonal drop last year or the year before at this time.
Am I missing something here? Isn’t it that the rate of change in the year over year inventory growth rate is (possibly) reaching a plateau but the actual inventory growth rate is still 25%+ and higher than it has been at anytime in that chart prior to the second half of 2005. Unless transaction volume begins to grow year over year (and converge with the inventory growth rate) there will continue to be an increase in unsold homes.