Getting Graphic is a semi-sort-of-irregular collection of our favorite real estate-related chart(s).

However, this time its mine…

A regular read of mine is the Northern New Jersey Housing Bubble for its dogged attention to the NJ housing market. Yesterday, in the post Incredible Shrinking NAR Forecast he quantifies the change in forecast stats released by the NAR. A hat tip to James as I took the numbers he presented and made a table to illustrate the changing forecast numbers over the past 8 months.

I have always suspected that NAR housing forecasts changed over time. That in and of its self is fine. Access to more information allows forecasters to be more accurate (in theory). Although look at what happened with jobs data last week.

My problem with the integrity of NAR’s year over year forecasts is two-fold:

  • The base year (2005) is changing without explanation. This skews the percentage changes and makes me wonder why.

  • The forecasts that released periodically have paid little attention to the erosion of the initial numbers from the end of last year.

One Response to “[Getting Graphic] A Forecast To Meet Every Need”

  1. John Philip Mason says:

    I’m a member of NAR and I’m glad to see you catching stuff like this.

    My other problem with NAR is that they typically don’t provide more than one year worth of stats. The result is you’re stuck with their analysis without the benefit of having access to the data from prior time periods (i.e. 3 years, 5 years, and 10 years). Like you, our local MLS posts their market reports with data from prior years. NAR has a lot to learn from you and your market reports. If NAR thinks it has a corner on the market in terms of market data, sooner or later they will find someone out there providing better data. Openness and unbiased analysis is what gains credibility with the public.