Getting Graphic is a semi-sort-of-irregular collection of our favorite real estate-related chart(s).
However, this time its mine…
A regular read of mine is the Northern New Jersey Housing Bubble for its dogged attention to the NJ housing market. Yesterday, in the post Incredible Shrinking NAR Forecast he quantifies the change in forecast stats released by the NAR. A hat tip to James as I took the numbers he presented and made a table to illustrate the changing forecast numbers over the past 8 months.
I have always suspected that NAR housing forecasts changed over time. That in and of its self is fine. Access to more information allows forecasters to be more accurate (in theory). Although look at what happened with jobs data last week.
My problem with the integrity of NAR’s year over year forecasts is two-fold:
The base year (2005) is changing without explanation. This skews the percentage changes and makes me wonder why.
The forecasts that released periodically have paid little attention to the erosion of the initial numbers from the end of last year.