[The Stamford Review] makes the well-documented conclusion that New York City may face a total build-out crisis in seven to 10 years, reported in its most recent issue, all the more alarming.
This press release provides an overview of the current issue [Stamford Review]. Stamford Review editor Larry Sicular states:
The city depends on housing construction to help support its economy, but by the time a child born here today reaches the fourth grade there may not be any vacant land left for development,” said Larry Sicular, publisher/editor of The Stamford Review. “Focused on following the strengthening or weakening real estate market, few people have stopped long enough to look forward to the very difficult planning decisions facing us.
I have known Larry for more than 20 years and I jumped at the opportunity to contribute two articles to the current issue:
Here are the portions of the press release that pertain to the Gentrification article:
As Manhattan has gentrified, pricing differentials among neighborhoods like Tribeca and the Upper West side have dramatically slimmed down, by 35% since 1989. (Miller, Miller Samuel Inc.)
High land prices are forcing developers to create bigger, more profitable units, but demand has shifted to mid-sized units. A growing supply of unsold, large, pricey units is the result. (Miller)
New developments in emerging New York City neighborhoods now cost almost as much for homebuyers as those in established markets. (Miller)
Here are the portions of the press release that pertain to the Media article:
In 2005, the media were so determined to find bad news about a housing bubble that they oversimplified and drew misleading conclusions about market statistics. (Miller)
Now, after two consecutive quarters of quiet markets, the media has adjusted its terminology from a “bubble ready to burst” to a “soft landing” or a more “normalized” market. (Miller)
” there may not be any vacant land left for development”
The question is what you regard as buildable. If you mean Manhattan south of 96th, the answer may be yes, but there are enormous swaths of territory almost as empty as the dark side of the moon and on the NYC subway system. South Bronx anyone?
That’s nonsense. NYC absorbed the decline in construction employment due to full build-out (except for Staten Island) 40 years ago.
Today’s more limited construction employment (as a share of the total) is supported by building and infrastructure maintenance, and redevelopment.
Other overheaded housing markets are the ones heading for a big construction decline.
Robert, this article refers only to Manhattan. Larry – can you elaborate? You seem very passionate in your response but I don’t follow your logic.