First American Real Estate Solutions released a study called Mortgage Payment Reset: The Rumor and the Reality [pdf] which shows some contrarian results to what would be expected if mortgage rates continue to rise. It is reported to be based on 97% of the nations real estate transactions, plus it has some very cool charts.
[Webmaster’s note: if the 97% number is accurate, why don’t they release national housing statistics? It would seem to be that it would be far more complete than NAR and OFHEO stats which tend to be suspect.]
Incidentally, core inflation stats were released today [MW], showing the biggest monthly gain in a year, seemingly insuring at least two more moves by the Fed in the coming months.
There is limited distinction in risk between owner occupied homes v. investor homes but there was a risk distinction between adjustable rate mortgages and fixed rate mortgages. Quite often, ARM mortgageghest risk strata were found to be those ARM’s with 2% teaser rates financed and less than 15% equity existing. properties have lower equity levels, including many with negative equity and have stretched their ability to make payments. The hi
Some other neat charts in the study:
A caveat – Since First American has a lock on much of the public record information in our housing market (ie floor plans and tax maps) and no real competition, they have no incentive to be fair and reasonable, made even more challenging because they are so big. Last year, I reduced the services my firm subscribes to because some of it was redundant. So they sent my firm to collection even though we paid the reduced invoice in full! It took nearly a year and untold phone calls to get this situation straightened out. It took months before we could get anyone to return our calls. Plus the services (that we had paid for) were suspended until it was straightened out. Incredible. But I tried very hard to maintain my objectivity with them in this post because the remaining services we do subscribe to is of great quality.