Its Thursday Friday, so its that time of the week to provide my Three Cents Worth as a post for Curbed. This week the chart makes us take inventory of ourselves.

To view post: Three Cents Worth: Taking Inventory

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2 Responses to “[Curbed] Three Cents Worth: Taking Inventory”

  1. skep-tic says:

    how is this different from the normal seasonality of inventory? looks from the chart that inventory often declines in the 3d and 4th quarters. what makes you think all of the recent expirations won’t just relist in the spring?

  2. drbrightside says:

    I’m not familiar with New York real estate “seasonality” to answer skeptic’s very plausible question, that said, I would relate it to large national markets that led this correction. In Sacramento, for example, resale inventory is down signficantly more in percentage terms than a year ago accounting for seasonality. It peaked in August ’06 and has since declined 30% in relation to the previous year of approx 10%. There will of course be new listings that expired in ’06 that will cause a bump up in inventory in Jan and the spring. The key (of course), will be velocity of buyers back into the market, now that the media has turned from “panic” and “freefall” to “market bottomed” and “stabilization”. I would also draw serious comparisons between the London and Manhattan markets. Both had leveling off (London in 2005 NY in 2006), both have strong financial employment bases (just look at M&A activity), and both have very limited room to expand, and whereas London appears to me a year ahead of the Manhattan in it’s cycle, it had 12% housing appreciation in 2006 after a year of nothing and many calling for a bubble bursting. So look to London 2006 for would could possibly portend Manhattan 2007.