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Florida

[Tightening] 4Q 2012 Palm Beach Report

January 21, 2013 | 10:49 pm | | Reports |

We published our inaugural report on the Palm Beach, Florida sales market for 4Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Luxury market prices outpaced the overall market.
  • Overall price indicators show sharp year over year gains.
  • Overall sales levels trending higher.
  • Days on market expanded as demand worked off older inventory.
  • Negotiability between buyers and seller fell sharply.



    Here’s an excerpt from the report:
CONDO/TOWNHOUSE Median sales price jumped 23.9% from the same quarter last year to $588,750. Average sales price and average price per square foot edged 5.8% and 1.3% respectively over the same period. Number of sales jumped 56.1% year-overyear to 64 sales, but remained unchanged from the prior quarter…

SINGLE FAMILY Although this market segment represents a narrow submarket of Palm Beach, the number of sales nearly doubled from prior year levels, reaching 26. All price indicators showed double-digit year-over-year gains; median sales price increased 13% to $2,775,000 over the period, while average sales price and average price per square foot showed larger gains, rising 32% and 26.1% respectively…

You can build your own custom data tables. We’ll be adding a chart library for this market area shortly.




The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Palm Beach [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Palm Beach [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Looking Up] 4Q 2012 Fort Lauderdale Report

January 21, 2013 | 10:40 pm | | Reports |

We published our report on the Fort Lauderdale, Florida sales market for 4Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Overall price indicators show year over year gains.
  • Overall sales levels trending higher.
  • Luxury condo prices jumped, single family slipped.
  • The time to sell a property fell sharply.




    Here’s an excerpt from the report:
CONDO/TOWNHOUSE
Median sales price jumped 19.4% from the same period last year to $215,000. Average sales price and average price per square foot increased 13.5% and 12.9% respectively over the same period, while number of sales increased 3.7% to 474…

SINGLE FAMILY Median sales price jumped 13.8% from the prior year quarter to $182,000. Average sales price and average price per square foot increased 2.6% and 6.3% respectively over the same period. There were 457 fourth quarter single-family sales, a 19.3% surge above prior year levels…

You can build your own custom data tables. We’ll be adding a chart library for this market area shortly.




The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Fort Lauderdale [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Fort Lauderdale [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Rising, Faster] 4Q 2012 Boca Raton Report

January 21, 2013 | 10:29 pm | | Reports |

We published our report on the Boca Raton, Florida sales market for 4Q 2012. This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Overall price indicators show sharp year over year gains.
  • Overall sales levels trending higher.
  • Marketing times fell sharply and negotiability between buyers and seller narrowed.




Here’s an excerpt from the report:

CONDO/TOWNHOUSE Median sales price of a Boca Raton condo jumped 28.2% from $93,000 in the prior year quarter to $119,250. Over the same period, the number of sales edged 1.4% higher to 642. With 1,227 active listings, the monthly absorption rate was 5.7 months, consistent with the past several quarters…

SINGLE FAMILY Median sales price surged 17% from the prior year quarter to $310,000. Number of sales jumped 17.9% to 566 sales over the same period, the largest fourth quarter total in more than 6 years. With inventory at 1,127, the absorption rate, or number of months to sell all active listings at the current pace of sales, was 6 months, which was consistent with the past several quarters…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 4Q 12 data. We’ll be adding a chart library for this market area soon!




The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Boca Raton [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Boca Raton [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

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[International Story] 4Q 2012 Miami Sales Report

January 12, 2013 | 8:46 pm | | Reports |

We published our report on the Miami sales market for 4Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • SALES SURGE – Sales were up sharply from a year ago, the highest fourth quarter in at least 6 years.
  • FALLING INVENTORY – Listing inventory fell sharply. Low or negative equity holding back supply in addition to higher sales activity.
  • SMALLER DISTRESSED SALES SHARE – 40.2% market share of distressed sales (REO+Short Sales) lowest share in 3 years.
  • DEMAND DRIVERS – International buyers continued to play a key role in demand. Record low mortgage rates as well.
  • HIGH END MARKET RISING WITH ENTIRE MARKET – Luxury market price trends rising consistent with gains in overall market.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The market pace within Miami’s coastal communities continued to quicken in the fourth quarter. Distressed sale market share and listing inventory continued to fall, prices trended markedly higher, properties sold faster with less negotiability, and international buyers continued to play a key role in demand.

All price indicators posted large increases from year ago levels; median sales price jumped 27.3% to $210,000, average sales price surged 27.8% to $402,626, and average price per square foot increased 21.5% to $260. A portion of these substantial gains was attributable to the continued decline in market share of lower priced distressed sales, which fell to a 3-year low at 40.2%. However, the average sales price of non-distressed condo and single-family sales still jumped 16.6% above prior year levels…

You can build your own custom data tables on the Miami sales market – now updated with 4Q 12 data. I’ve also updated the charts on the Miami sales market.




The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Miami Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Miami Sales [Douglas Elliman]


Looking For That Ray – Knight Frank’s Sunshine Index

December 7, 2012 | 7:00 am | | Reports |


[click to open WSJ article]

As a followup to my analysis of light on property values, I came across this fun way to look at the market.

…real-estate consulting firm Knight Frank looked at 14 warm-weather vacation spots around the world. Using the average hours of sunlight per day and the average house price for a four-bedroom property in a prime real-estate location, Knight Frank arrived at the price for an hour of sunshine, averaged over a year…

Of course this is merely another way to slice and dice the high end housing market – just like the stock market – not scientific or useful but still fascinating – Florida looks like a pretty good deal.



Knight Frank Sunshine Index [WSJ]


[Knight Frank] Economic Uncertainty Pushes Price of Luxury Bricks and Mortar Higher

November 4, 2012 | 8:00 am | | Reports |


[click to open report]

Our friends across the pond at Knight Frank just released their Q3 2012 Prime Global Cities Index which our firm and Douglas Elliman in NYC and Miami contribute content to.

Miami was #3 after Dubai although that placement was exagerated by the drop in distressed sales in south Florida (and they will rise going forward). Still, Miami has come a long way in 2 years. Manhattan showed decline but most of that was attributable to the shift in mix to entry level sales as mortgage rates continue to fall to new record lows. However it’s quite interesting to look at Manhattan as more mundane a market than the super-luxury segment would suggest. Further proof that the top end is not a proxy for everything else.

Cities such as Dubai, Miami, Nairobi and London are increasingly considered investment hubs for HNWIs in their wider regions. In the wake of the Arab Spring, Dubai has been seen as a relative safe haven for MENA buyers while Venezuelan and Brazilian investors have looked to Miami to limit their exposure to domestic political and economic volatility.

HNWI = High Net Worth Individual

Here’s KF’s top line overview:

-Fifteen of the 26 cities tracked by the Prime Global Cities Index (58%) recorded flat or positive price growth in the year to September, but over the last quarter 20 of the 26 cities (77%) have seen flat or positive growth – indicating an improving scenario.
-The index now stands 18.7% above its financial crisis low in Q2 2009 with Hong Kong, London and Beijing having been the strongest performers over this period, recording price growth of 52.9%, 45.4% and 39.5% respectively.
-Five cities recorded double-digit price growth in the year to September; Jakarta, Dubai, Miami, Nairobi and London – a city from each of the five key world regions.



Q3 2012 Prime Global Cities Index [Knight Frank]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Manhattan Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Miami Sales [Douglas Elliman]

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3Q 2012 Miami Real Estate Trends, Spanish & Portuguese Translations

October 25, 2012 | 11:59 am | | Reports |

South Florida-based Douglas Elliman has translated the Miami market report I prepare to Spanish and Portuguese versions in order to better serve their clients, all in the name of increased market transparency.

Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Spanish) | Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Portuguese)

[click to open reports]


Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Spanish) 3Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]
Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Portuguese) 3Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]
Elliman Report: Miami Sales (English) 3Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]

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[Buyers Sellers Closer] 3Q 2012 Palm Beach Report

October 20, 2012 | 2:00 pm | | Reports |

We published our inaugural report on the Palm Beach, Florida sales market for 3Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

-Condo sales reached their second highest level in more than six years.
-Buyers and sellers moved closer together on price and the market appears to be absorbing more of the older listing inventory.
-Single family homes selling 2 months faster than a year ago.






Here’s an excerpt from the report:

CONDO/TOWNHOUSE The number of sales jumped 45.5% to 64 units in the third quarter, from the prior year quarter. The year-to-date number of sales is at its second highest level in more than six years. Median sales price increased 3.3% to $390,000 from the prior year quarter, while average sales price and average price per square foot increased 6.5% and 27.7% respectively…

SINGLE FAMILY Median sales price increased 5.7% to $2,600,000 from the prior year quarter. Average sales price and average price per square foot dropped 16.4% and 15.1% over the same period. Arguably a small submarket that could be characterized as stable, the number of sales fell to 23 from 25 in the prior year quarter…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – will be updated with 3Q 12 data shortly NOW UPDATED FOR 3Q12. We’ll be adding a chart library for this market area soon!




The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Palm Beach [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Palm Beach [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Improving, Jumping] 3Q 2012 Fort Lauderdale Report

October 20, 2012 | 1:00 pm | | Reports |

We published our inaugural report on the Fort Lauderdale, Florida sales market for 3Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

-Over the last year price indicators in Fort Lauderdale are up across the board.
-Buyers and sellers have moved more closely together on price than they have in the past six years.
-Marketing times for the overall market are at their fastest pace in six years.




Here’s an excerpt from the report:

CONDO/TOWNHOUSE
Median sales price increased 16.3% to $200,000 from prior year levels. Average sales price and average price per square foot increased 19.6% and 25.4% respectively over the same period. Sales fell 12.2% to 466 from 531 sales in the same quarter last year. Listing inventory held firm over the past two quarters at just above the 1,000 threshold…

SINGLE FAMILY The average size of a single family sale was 1,870 square feet, 8.7% larger than the same period last year. This compounded the gains in all price indicators. Median sales price jumped 58.4% to $221,750 from prior year levels…

We’ll be adding data soon so NOW UPDATED FOR 3Q12 you can build your own custom data tables on the market. We’ll be adding a chart library for this market area soon!




The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Fort Lauderdale [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Fort Lauderdale [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Better, Faster] 3Q 2012 Boca Raton Report

October 19, 2012 | 9:47 pm | | Reports |

We published our report on the Boca Raton, Florida sales market for 3Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

-Overall condo price indicators were mixed. Smallest average size in more than 6 years driven by falling mortgage rates.
-Condo sales fell as single family sales jumped.
-Luxury condo and single family luxury price indicators showed double-digit increases over last year.
-Properties generally sold faster than last year.
-Buyers and sellers have moved closer together on price.


Here’s an excerpt from the report:

CONDO/TOWNHOUSE Average price per square foot of a condo increased 5.6% to $152 over the same period last year. Average sales price and median sales price declined 1.4% and 17.1% respectively. Average square foot was 1,295 square feet, the lowest in over six years, driven by record low mortgage rates…

SINGLE FAMILY There were 591 sales, 5.3% more than in the same period last year and the second highest total in more than six years. Average price per square foot jumped 9.6%, as average sales price and median sales price increased 14.9% and 21.2% respectively…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 3Q 12 data. We’ll be adding a chart library for this market area soon!




The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Boca Raton [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Boca Raton [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Improving In Any Language] 3Q 2012 Miami Sales Report

October 11, 2012 | 1:28 pm | | Reports |

We published our report on the Miami sales market for 3Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • INVENTORY FALLING – Listing inventory fell 24.7% to 11,468 from 15,239 in the year ago quarter.
  • FORECLOSURE SALES (excluding short sales) fell to an 18.6% market share from a recent high of 44.2% in first quarter of 2011.
  • NON-DISTRESSED SALES surged year over year. Condos up 33.9% and Single Family up 17.1%.
  • CONDO AND SINGLE FAMILY PRICES up 22.6% year-to-date as non-distressed sales now comprise 58.5% of all sales versus 46.6% last year.
  • CASH IS STILL THE KEY TERM used for condo purchases. 72.8% of non-distressed and 76.3% of all distressed condo purchases were made with cash.
  • DEMAND – International buyers continue to drive the market. Record low mortgage rates continue to bring buyers in to market but demand remains somewhat tempered by very tight lending conditions.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The Miami coastal communities experienced a sharp decline in listing inventory, a decline in distressed sales and rise in non-distressed sales, rising price pressure and continued demand from international buyers. All price indicators posted large gains as distressed sale market share activity continued to fall. Median sales price jumped 18.2% to $195,000 from $165,000 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price and average price per square foot saw similar year-over-year gains of 16.7% and 18.2%. The median sales price year-to date was $190,000 and increased at a similar rate of 22.6%. Distressed sales market share fell to 41.3% from 53.3% over the same period last year helping drive overall prices higher due to their lower price levels…

You can build your own custom data tables on the Miami sales market – now updated with 3Q 12 data. I’ll have the latest charts on the Miami sales market uploaded soon.




The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Miami Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Miami Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]


NAR and Florida Realtors to Create Repeat Sales Index: Why?

September 4, 2012 | 6:00 am | |

Last week the Florida’s state Realtor association announced they are developing a repeat sales index for tracking the state’s housing market. NAR is doing the same thing on a national level. My first thought was, huh?

The new Florida Realtors Real Estate Price Index will use data from the Florida Department of Revenue to chart home prices for the state and metro areas during the last 17 years.

Why create yet another housing index?

NAR has been sharply critical of the repeat sales methodology for years – and now to suddenly create one because it works better? Damaging logic and once again undermining NAR’s credibility and branding.

The motivation for the creation of a new index seems to be the popularity of the Case Shiller Home Price Index which has been a thorn in NAR’s side since it was introduced a number of years ago. Ironically, NAR enabled Case Shiller to thrive from NAR’s own inability to become a neutral trusted advisor of the exclusive housing data they publish. The culture at NAR Research enabled the two most recent chief economists Lereah and Yun to consistently interpret the numbers with an almost cartoonish glowing angle that has caused severe damage to the NAR brand.

In other words, Realtors and their associations have long ago missed the opportunity to be a reliable provider of real estate stats, but that’s really ok. After all, the association is a trade group and any stats they produce are, by definition, tainted even if they aren’t. Case in point: NAR just revised their Existing Home Sales stats after data provider CORElogic discovered there was a significant error and pressured them to do a revision. NAR had double counted about 2M sales since 2007.

What is a repeat-sales index?

A repeat sales index measures the difference in price from sales that recently sold and their prior sale. New development is omitted because those units have never sold before – a huge characteristic of the Florida housing market. Of course if the property was gut renovated, doubled in size, torn down and rebuilt, a repeat sales index does not know this. A repeat sales index is also subject to the same skew in housing type that a hedonic (i.e. Existing Home Sales) index is and is therefore adjusted using varying formulaic methodologies.

A repeat sales index does not reflect true seasons in housing. Yes there is a nominal difference between their seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted trends, but it does not show the spring rush and winter doldrums as they actually occur. There seems to be a need by economists to show a steady line rather than a seasonal visual a consumer would better understand.

Whats wrong with the Case Shiller Index?

I’ve been quite critical of the Case Shiller Index since I began this blog in 2005 namely because:

  • it is 5-7 months behind the market;
  • it excludes co-ops, condos and new development.

I do admire Robert Shiller and Karl Case as pioneers in this field but the CS index was NEVER intended to be a consumer tool used to measure housing. It was meant to be the basis for allowing Wall Street to hedge the housing market. A logical goal indeed, but CS was conceived before it was feasible to “game it” i.e. many economists and analytics firms can now accurately project the results of the index in advance. Not a good thing for investors who want to bet on it which explains why such limited trading actually occurs.

There are a lot of housing indices these days. There are also many new data companies that can do analytics a lot better than Realtors can because they only do analytics for a living. Without neutral commentary, how do more housing indices by NAR or Florida’s association make the picture any clearer to the consumer (and Realtors)? Instead I think the Florida association should be focusing on ways to help their members be more successful.



Case Shiller Index [Standard & Poor’s]
Existing Home Sales [NAR]
Florida Association of Realtors [Home Page]

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